Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Thu Apr 06 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 06 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 08 2023

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the Mid-Atlantic today...

...Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding stretches
from southeast Texas to the western/central Gulf Coast through Friday...

...Unsettled weather forecast throughout much of the Pacific Northwest...

A sharp cold front traversing the East Coast today and lingering along the
Gulf Coast and Southeast early this weekend will continue to be a focus
for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Very warm and moist air ahead of
this frontal boundary throughout the Mid-Atlantic will offer an
environment conducive for thunderstorms to potentially turn severe this
afternoon. In fact, high temperatures into the 70s and 80s could break a
few daily high temperature records around New York City and Long Island
before cooler temperatures surge eastward this evening. The greatest
chances for severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts
and large hail spans from south-central Virginia to the Delmarva
Peninsula. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms. Intense rainfall rates could also
lead to lowered visibility and the potential for urban flooding depending
on exactly where the storms track. Additionally, thunderstorms are
expected to develop and strengthen near the busy afternoon commute, so be
sure to check conditions prior to venturing out if traveling in this
region.

Farther south, heavy rain is likely across parts of southeastern Texas and
along the western/central Gulf Coast over the next few days as a
stationary front lingers across the region within a moisture rich
atmosphere. Chances for flash flooding exist where the most intense
downpours and persistent heavy rain sets up, while also exhibiting a very
slow forward motion. For today, southeast Texas and the western Gulf Coast
is the most likely region to experience pockets of rainfall exceeding 3
inches, which could lead to flooding in low-lying and urban regions. A
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect today includes the
cities of San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, and Houston, TX, as well as
Shreveport, LA. An outside chance for damaging wind gusts and large hail
is also possible within some of the stronger storms today across
south-central/southeast Texas. The heavy rain threat is then forecast to
slide eastward on Friday along with a surface low developing along the
stationary front. Additional flash flooding is possible across the central
Gulf Coast and Deep South, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
centered over eastern Louisiana and extending into central Mississippi. As
this system continues to swing east on Saturday, one final day of
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected over the Southeast as a strong
high pressure system builds to the north over the Great Lakes. Overall,
the stormy weather pattern across the Southeast and Gulf Coast through
Saturday is forecast to yield widespread areal-average rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches, with higher localized totals.

Unsettled weather is also in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest
between today and Friday. A cold front and surge of Pacific moisture
pushing inland from northern California to Washington could produce a few
inches of rainfall until weakening and sliding into the Intermountain West
on Friday night. Warm air associated with the system will allow for very
high snow levels to reach up to 5000 feet and the potential for snowmelt
across lower elevations.

Elsewhere, cold and blustery conditions are expected to continue today
across the Upper Great Lakes, along with scattered snow showers. Another
round of potentially localized heavy snow is possible across a narrow
corridor of central Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan on
Friday night just to the north of a strong warm front, but uncertainty
remains high regarding exact location and amounts at this time.

The temperature outlook through Saturday across the Nation features a big
cooldown across the East Coast on Friday and Saturday, with widespread
below average temperatures, while much of the western and central U.S. see
a return of above average temperatures reaching into the 60s and 70s by
the weekend.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php