Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Fri Apr 07 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 07 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 09 2023

...Heavy rain with the potential for scattered flash flooding over the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this weekend...

...Unsettled weather forecast throughout much of the Pacific Northwest...

With broad high pressure nestled atop the Great Lakes, much of the active,
unsettled weather looks to focus over the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast, and Pacific Northwest for the next few days. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms continue tonight across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley as a cold front slowly advances southeastward, with
plenty of very unstable Gulf of Mexico air available to fuel the broad
area of convection. Very heavy rainfall with this activity has warranted a
few Flash Flood Warnings tonight across southwest Louisiana, and could
produce scattered flash floods across the Gulf States through this weekend
as the front stalls out overhead and serves as a catalyst for repeat
thunderstorm development. Accordingly, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect across Southeast Texas into Western
Mississippi through tomorrow morning, where 4-5" of rain could fall
through tomorrow within the most pronounced rain bands. An outside chance
for damaging wind gusts and large hail also remains possible through this
morning within some of the stronger storms across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf States. Meanwhile, frontal systems in the Eastern Pacific
will keep wet and unsettled conditions in store for the much of the
Pacific Northwest this weekend. Rain and elevation snows should persist
through much of today across much of the Northwest, before the next round
of unsettled weather arrives Saturday morning. By Sunday, an additional
1-3 inches of liquid precipitation look possible with the arrival of a
more organized frontal system, where steady moderate rainfall atop a deep
snowpack could prompt isolated flooding issues along the Pacific Northwest
coast. 

Temperature wise, expect cool and below average conditions across the
Eastern Seaboard through the Gulf States as the aforementioned broad high
pressure lingers overhead through Sunday. On the western fringe of the
high, look for a warming trend toward slightly above average across the
Intermountain West through the Upper Midwest this weekend as low level
southerly and westerly flow encroach.


Asherman/Campbell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php