Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Apr 09 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 09 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 11 2023

...Unsettled weather to continue across the Pacific Northwest into the
work week...

...Thunderstorms and warm weather to return to the Central U.S beginning
today...

...Cooler-than-average weather to linger across the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast through next week...

Radar and satellite imagery tonight depict a swath of rainfall steadily
approaching the Oregon and Washington coastline in what can best be
described as a dreary and unsettled pattern across the Pacific Northwest,
with little reprieve expected for the next several days. A train of
disturbances on the fringe of a strong upper-ridge are forecast to
strengthen moist Pacific flow into much of the Northwest, which should
result in increasing rainfall coverage and intensity beginning today. The
steady moderate to locally heavy rain and mountain snowfall is expected to
persist into the work week, resulting in areal liquid precipitation totals
of 1-3" over western Washington and Oregon through Tuesday. There is a low
end flooding risk (level 1/4 on the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) with
this activity today across portions of the Pacific Northwest as the steady
rain could combine with melting snowpack in the region to yield isolated
floods.

Otherwise, expect mild temperatures in the 50's across the Northwest
beneath the shield of clouds and rain, while much of the Intermountain
West and Plains warms up considerably into the 70's and 80's as the strong
ridge builds overhead. In fact, the forecast for Monday and Tuesday
highlights the potential for a few daily high temperature records to be
challenged over the High Plains and Southwest. The warming weather
combined with a few weak disturbances will also support thunderstorm
chances into next week over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. A few
storms today could be severe across portions of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico, primarily for isolated wind and hail according to the Storm
Prediction Center.      

In stark contrast to warm weather and thunderstorms across the Heartland,
much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast looks to remain under unseasonably
cool and increasingly dry weather as surface high pressure over the
Northeast sinks south. While not record breaking, the most anomalously
cool temperatures will focus over the Mid-Atlantic, with daytime highs
hovering in the 50's-60's and overnight lows in the 30's-40's. Fans of
warmer weather will not have to wait too long, however, as temperatures
are forecast to rebound into the 70's looking ahead toward midweek as the
high pressure modifies. Unsettled weather could also make a return to the
Gulf by midweek as area of low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico,
although the details for specifics are nebulous right now. 

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php