Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 11 2023 - 12Z Thu Apr 13 2023

...Heavy rains to spread over the Central Gulf States and Southeast
beginning today...

...Widespread warm up across much of the Lower 48 the next few days ahead
of the next sweeping cold front...

...Elevated fire weather concerns across the Plains through tomorrow; New
England today...

After a lengthy period of wet and unsettled weather over the Pacific
Northwest (the previous focus for ongoing heavy rain), conditions are
expected to improve through tomorrow as cool, dry northwesterly flow sets
in behind a cold front moving through the Western U.S. With that, our
attention for the next focused area of active and unsettled weather turns
toward the Central Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure forms along a
stationary front offshore late today/Wednesday. As it does, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage along a northward
lifting warm front atop the Central Gulf Coast. It should be noted that
there still is spread amongst the models with how this system evolves,
although there is a general consensus for an axis of heavy rain focusing
generally along the southeast Louisiana coastline eastward toward the
Florida Panhandle. Through Thursday, rainfall totals on the order of 1-3"
(locally higher) could produce isolated instances of flash flooding (level
1/4 on the WPC Excessive Rainfall outlook) along the Central Gulf Coast
and Southeast. On the eastern fringe of this system, persistent easterly
onshore flow will also support daily thunderstorms which could produce
additional isolated flash flooding over Southeast Florida along the urban
corridor.

Meanwhile, the forecast for a widespread warm up across the Lower 48
remains on track as a potent upper-ridge migrates eastward toward the
Central U.S. In fact, numerous stations across the Plains states and Upper
Midwest could challenge their daily high temperature record through
midweek with highs in the 70's and 80's. By the end of the work week, the
eastward shifting ridge axis could bring temperatures in the 70's and 80's
to the I-95 corridor which could challenge even more daily high records.
The current forecast calls for warm weather to stick around across the
eastern half of the Lower 48 through this weekend before the next cold
front sweeps through to cool temperatures back down toward normal. The
warming weather will also spark fire weather concerns across the Plains
(through tomorrow) and New England (today), where the Storm Prediction
Center is highlighting an Elevated (threat level 1/3) threat of fire
weather conditions. Accordingly, Red Flag Warnings extend across the
Central Plains and New England today, respectively, as conditions become
increasingly favorable for fires.  


Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php