Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 14 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023

...Anomalous warmth including record-breaking temperatures continue for
the Midwest and Northeast...

...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moving up the
East Coast through Saturday...

...Threat of heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and critical fire
weather for the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley to end the
week...

...Lingering snow showers continue for the Northern/Central Rockies
through Friday...

Significantly above average temperatures are forecast to continue under
the influence of an anomalous upper-level ridge for the Midwest and
Northeast Friday and Saturday. Widespread highs into the 70s and 80s are
forecast for Friday, upwards of 25-35 degrees above average for this time
of year. Numerous potential record-tying/breaking highs are possible from
the Lower Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England,
with temperatures approaching 90 for some locations of the
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Highs will be a bit lower on Saturday
as the ridge aloft begins to break down and precipitation chances
increase, but will still be well above average in the 70s. Further south,
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue as a compact
upper-level low and associated surface frontal system move northward from
the Gulf Coast up the East Coast through Saturday. Some locally heavy
rainfall and an isolated instance or two of flash flooding will be
possible for the Piedmont of South and North Carolina Friday, where a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) is in effect. 

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the West will move out over the
Plains as lee cyclogenesis helps better organize/strengthen low pressure
and an associated frontal system over the Central/Northern Plains Thursday
evening. A cold front will slowly push eastward through the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest Friday with a sharpening dryline
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains as moisture
returns northward ahead of the system. These features will help promote
the development of showers and thunderstorms Friday across the
Midwest/Plains. There is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) from
the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Central Plains where some
storms may carry the threat of some damaging winds and large hail. Storm
chances will shift into the Mississippi Valley as the cold front/dry line
continue eastward on Saturday. Increasing moisture along with moderate
buoyancy will increase the risk for some locally heavy rainfall over the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley along the slow moving front, with a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect. Severe weather chances also
expand with a Slight Risk of Severe Weather similarly over the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley for the continued risk of damaging winds
and large hail. While rain rates and storm total rainfall are expected to
be lower further north over the Upper Mississippi Valley, the combination
of warm temperatures leading to snow melt on top of additional rainfall
could lead to an isolated flood risk. Dry and windy conditions to the west
of the dryline and ahead of the southward moving cold front over the
Southern High Plains on Friday have also prompted a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center. Temperatures will fall quite a
bit behind the front after the anomalous warmth earlier this week, with
highs in the 40s for the Northern Plains Friday and highs falling into the
50s and low 60s for the Central Plains Saturday.

Further west, snow showers will continue along a frontal system pushing
southward through the Northern/Central Rockies Friday. Some locally heavy
snow totals will be possible over the Central Rockies in Colorado. The
snow should wind down by later Friday as the upper-level trough pushes
further eastward over the Plains and ridging begins to build over the
West. Some light showers will be possible over the Pacific Northwest but
otherwise the rest of the West will remain dry. High temperatures will
remain be a bit cool Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s forecast for the
Northern Rockies; 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Central
Rockies; and 60s and 70s in California and the Desert Southwest. The
ridging building in aloft will lead to a warm up for many Saturday, with
highs rising into the 60s for the Great Basin, 60s and 70s for California,
and 80s for the Desert Southwest. Highs will remain cool in the 40s and
50s for the Rockies.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php