Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 15 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 17 2023

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast...

An area of low pressure over the Central Plains will slowly move northward
to the Upper Great Lakes by Monday. On Saturday, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop along the associated front over parts of
Missouri to Louisiana. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there will be a threat of hail of two inches or
greater in diameter over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast will
have heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

On the storm s west side, light snow will develop over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies and the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday.
Also, upper-level energy will create showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday.

On Sunday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases as the front moves
eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes,
Central Appalachian, and the Southeast from Sunday into Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, there will be moderate to heavy rain over parts of Michigan
and Wisconsin. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley from
Sunday into Monday morning.

Furthermore, heavy snow will develop on Sunday over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. In addition, along the
rain/snowline, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday and dissipate, while another front moves onshore on Sunday. The
systems will produce coastal rain and highest elevation snow over the
Northern Cascades on Saturday. After the stronger front passes, snow
levels will lower over the Northwest as light snow develops over parts of
the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Sunday into Monday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php