Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 19 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 21 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and
over Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday; there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains...

...Snow over the Cascades, Northern Intermountain Region, and
Northern/Central Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday; moderate snow over
parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday...

On Wednesday, a front extending from the Northern/Central Plain to Great
Basin and the Southwest will slowly move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes
roughly southwestward to the Southern Plains by Friday morning. In
addition, moisture will flow northward over the Southern/Central Plains
into the Upper Midwest. As a result, on Wednesday, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of Oklahoma to Iowa as the front
moves onto the Plains. Therefore, through Thursday morning, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is a greater risk of
two-inch or greater hail over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.

Furthermore, snow will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains and
expand into the northernmost parts of the Northern Plains. By Wednesday
afternoon, the snow will expand into parts of the Northern most parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes.

Moreover, moderate to heavy rain will accompany the thunderstorms over
parts of Kansas northward to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will move into the Great Lakes
overnight Wednesday.

On Thursday, showers and severe thunderstorms will accompany the boundary
as the front dips farther south into Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains from Thursday into Friday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Once again,
there is a greater risk of two-inch or greater hail over parts of the
Southern High Plains.

The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of northeast Texas,
Arkansas, and southeastern Missouri. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains from Thursday into Friday
morning.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
In addition, on Thursday, moderate snow will develop over parts of the
Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will
create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow, in the Cascades, over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern California. The light snow will extend into
the Northern Intermountain Region, Northern Rockies, and parts of the
Central Rockies through to Friday. By Thursday morning, the coastal rain
and the higher-elevation snow will end over the Pacific Northwest.
However, the coastal rain and higher-elevation snow will redevelop over
the Pacific Northwest late Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday
morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php