Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023 - 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023 ...Heavy rain and severe weather in the Southern Plains through tonight should push east Thursday-Friday... ...Severe weather with potentially large hail could occur across the Florida Peninsula through this evening... ...Heavy wet snow over portions of the Rockies is tapering off, but more wet snow is expected by Thursday... ...Warming temperatures across the West could break records by Friday while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of the U.S. from the Rockies eastward... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across southern parts of the Plains in the vicinity of a couple low pressure/frontal systems. Additional severe storms are likely especially across northeastern parts of Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center has Slight to Enhanced Risks of severe weather delineated for tornado, large hail, and strong wind potential. Additionally, more instances of potentially large hail are possible across the Florida Peninsula where strong thunderstorms develop due to sea breeze boundaries and upper-level energy supporting storm formation and strengthening. Isolated tornadoes and gusty winds could also occur in Florida, and isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out either, particularly in the urban corridor. As the low pressure system lifts east/northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys by Friday, rain and thunderstorms will spread into those areas. On Thursday, organized thunderstorms could produce severe weather and flash flooding across portions of the Gulf Coast, where Slight Risks of both severe weather and excessive rainfall are in place given plenty of moisture and energy for storms. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible farther inland across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. with some lower potential for strong storms and runoff/flooding. On the drier backside of the low pressure system, Elevated Risks of fire danger are in place for portions of New Mexico and western Texas this evening and into Thursday. By Friday, rain and storms are likely to spread into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic toward the Southeast Atlantic Coast given the surface low pressure system's movement. Farther north, a low pressure system diving into the northern High Plains tonight will produce a variety of weather as it presses south and east. After a round of snow is winding down in especially the Colorado Rockies today, higher elevation wet snow up to around 6-8 inches in Colorado will once again be possible in the cooled air behind the low's cold front, shifting from northern parts of the Rockies to central/southern parts Thursday and Friday, with some light snow perhaps extending into the Front Range. Meanwhile, storms farther east could be strong to severe for parts of the Central Plains Thursday, when a Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place. Severe potential rises to a Slight Risk in Texas as the front/low dip farther south by Friday, and the fire weather risk could rise to Critical for portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico where gusty winds occur in low dewpoints on the dry side of a dryline. A developing upper-level ridge across the West through late week will lead to gradual warming of temperatures there. Above average temperatures should be most notable across the West Coast states, where a few record high maximum/minimum temperatures could be tied or set Thursday with increasing numbers of potential records by Friday. Temperatures in the Desert Southwest could exceed 100F, slightly warmer than usual for this time of year. But from the Rockies eastward, temperatures will generally be below normal for many areas through late week. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in place across parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region for a chilly Thursday morning. Tate Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php