Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023

...More rounds of heavy rain and severe weather are expected to impact the
southeastern quadrant of the U.S. through late week ...

...Another quick round of wet snow should spread from the northern to
central Rockies through tonight/early Friday...

...A warming trend across the West could break temperature records by
Friday while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of
the U.S. from the Rockies eastward...


An active and complicated weather pattern is forecast to bring inclement
weather to various locations across the eastern two-thirds of the country
through the next couple of days. One system of note will be a low pressure
system and multiple fronts combining with Gulf of Mexico energy to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast this evening,
spreading into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic tonight
into Friday and eventually into the Northeast by Saturday as the low lifts
northeast. For the remainder of the day into tonight, the Storm Prediction
Center is indicating Slight Risk areas of severe storms possible across
parts of the Gulf Coast, farther north into the Mid-South, and the
Atlantic Coast of Florida (the latter due to sea breeze convection). The
relatively higher likelihood of tornadoes is across the central Gulf
Coast, which coincidentally is also most likely to see instances of flash
flooding, per WPC's Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. As the low moves
northeast, Friday there are Marginal Risks of both severe weather (across
the southern half of the Eastern Seaboard) and for flash flooding (across
the Mid-Atlantic), with heavy rain and isolated flash flooding shifting
into the Northeast Saturday as areas farther southwest dry out behind the
system.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system diving across the northern High Plains
will produce a variety of weather as it presses south and east into the
mid-section of the country. Higher elevation wet snow of 6-12 inches is
once again possible as cool air is ushered in and lifted behind a cold
front across the northern Rockies today, reaching into the central Rockies
with 6+ inches of wet snow tonight/early Friday. Winter Weather Advisories
and a couple of Winter Storm Warnings are in place for this activity. Then
as the upper-level energy and frontal systems dive into the south-central
U.S., strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop in the southern
Plains--central to eastern parts of Texas in particular. Large hail is
likely while tornadoes and high straight-line winds are also threats, as
well as a few instances of flash flooding in areas with high rain rates.
By Saturday, heavy rain and storms are forecast to spread across the Gulf
Coast region once again. Behind these systems, the Storm Prediction Center
indicates Elevated to Critical Risks of fire danger are expected across
parts of the Southwest this evening and on Friday.

A strengthening upper-level ridge across the West through late week will
lead to warming of temperatures across the region. Above average
temperatures should be most notable across the West Coast states, where
several record high maximum/minimum temperatures could be tied or set on
Friday and Saturday, with temperatures around 15-25 degrees above normal.
Temperatures in the Desert Southwest could exceed 100F, slightly warmer
than usual for this time of year. But from the Rockies eastward into the
central U.S., temperatures will generally be below normal. The greatest
anomalies should be across the southern High Plains on Friday where highs
should stay in the 50s. Relatively cool conditions in the 60s and 70s will
progress into the south-central U.S. on Saturday. Farther north, cooler
than normal conditions and a couple of low pressure systems could support
mixed rain/snow across parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php