Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 28 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 30 2023

...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to increased
heavy rainfall chances across Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast through
Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible in eastern Texas on Friday ahead of
advancing cold front...

...Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend west of the Continental
Divide...


A slow-moving upper trough will lead to an active pattern taking shape
across the eastern half of the country this weekend, with multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall expected through Sunday morning. As a developing storm
system slowly tracks northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday,
moderate to heavy rain will overtake much of the region as warm, moist air
surges northward behind a lifting warm front, with rainfall totals of 1-2"
stretching from northern Virginia through New Jersey. Localized areas may
receive 3"+, resulting in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall contour
hoisted for areas in and around Washington D.C., and Baltimore. Conditions
will improve from south to north throughout the daytime Friday hours, with
the bulk of the precipitation becoming lighter by Saturday morning across
portions of the Northeast and southern New England.

Further west, a cold front progressing eastward across the Plains will
lead to heightened chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially on the
southern flank of the boundary, as a multitude of features, including a
developing dryline, a warm front, and a surface low, aid in the
development of supercells. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for much of eastern Texas,
with large population centers including the Dallas-Fort Worth, San
Antonio, and Austin metro areas under the risk of damaging winds, large
hail, and tornadoes on Friday. A forming surface low will push offshore
into the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday, with rainfall chances increasing
across portions of the immediate Gulf Coast as warm, moist air streams
northward behind a warm front. Multiple rounds of potentially heavy
rainfall are expected from early Saturday into the evening hours, leading
to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall being issued for the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia, as a broad area of
1-2 inch rainfall totals, and hourly rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr are
possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida Panhandle,
with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary threats.

Elsewhere, conditions will be pleasant and tranquil this weekend across
the West Coast, as persistent upper-level ridging keeps temperatures 15-25
degrees above normal for areas west of the Continental Divide. Widespread
high temperatures in the 80s are expected throughout interior sections of
the Pacific Northwest, while locations further south, including
California's Central Valley and the Mojave/Sonoran deserts, reach the 90s
and even 100s in localized areas.


Russell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php