Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023 - 00Z Mon May 01 2023

...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to increased
heavy rainfall chances across Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast through
Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible in eastern Texas on Friday ahead of
advancing cold front...

...Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend west of the Continental
Divide; Critical Fire Weather over the Southwest Today...

The forecast remains on track for deepening upper-troughing to maintain a
cool and unsettled pattern across the eastern quadrant of the Lower 48 as
we go into May, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall expected through
Sunday morning. An initial bout of isolated urban flash flooding remains
possible today across the D.C and Baltimore urban corridor today as a slow
moving storm system causes steady rainfall with pockets of excessive
rainfall rates. Conditions will generally improve from south to north with
the bulk of the precipitation becoming lighter by Saturday morning across
portions of the Northeast and southern New England. After a brief lull in
the rain tomorrow, the next focused round of showers and thunderstorms
looks to arrive across the Eastern Seaboard Sunday as two deep frontal
systems begin to merge over the Northeast later Sunday. Additional
instances of isolated to scattered flash flooding are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic into New England, with rainfall totals forecast in the 1-3"
range. Rainfall aside, expect the persistent upper-troughing pattern to
yield cooler than average high temperatures across the eastern half of the
Lower 48 this weekend, especially across the Upper-Midwest into the Ohio
Valley.

Meanwhile, severe weather and some heavy rainfall are a concern today
across portions of the Southern Plains as southerly flow brings an influx
of unstable air ahead of an intersecting cold front and dryline.
Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center maintains an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms for much of eastern Texas, with large population
centers including the Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin metro
areas under the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes today.
The eventual merger of these storms later today could also support
isolated flash flooding along the I-35 corridor in Texas given recent
heavy rainfall in the area.  By later tonight, a forming surface low will
push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico, refocusing heavy rainfall chances
south and east across portions of the immediate Gulf Coast as warm, moist
air streams northward behind a lifting warm front. Multiple rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall are expected from early Saturday into the
evening hours, leading to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall being issued
for the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia, as
a broad area of 1-2 inch rainfall totals, and hourly rainfall rates
approaching 2"/hr are possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible across
much of Florida, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary
threats.

Elsewhere, conditions will be pleasant and tranquil this weekend across
the West Coast, as persistent upper-level ridging keeps temperatures 15-25
degrees above normal for areas west of the Continental Divide. Widespread
high temperatures in the 80s are expected throughout interior sections of
the Pacific Northwest, while locations further south, including
California's Central Valley and the Mojave/Sonoran deserts, reach the 90s
and even 100s in localized areas. In fact, a few locations along the West
Coast and Southwest could challenge their daily high temperature records
this weekend. The warm and dry conditions will combine with gusty winds to
support a Critical fire weather risk today across southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico, with Elevated fire weather conditions forecast
tomorrow across portions of the Central Plains.


Asherman/Russell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php