Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Fri May 05 2023

Valid 12Z Fri May 05 2023 - 12Z Sun May 07 2023

...Active weather pattern from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest;
severe storms expected from the southern and central High Plains to the
Mississippi Valley...

...Summer-like heat to engulf the Southern and Central Plains this weekend
with some record breaking high temperatures possible...

...Cooler than normal temperatures to stick around in the West;
temperatures to reach more seasonal levels in the East this weekend...

As the work-week ends and the weekend begins, a pair of frontal systems
will be the catalysts for numerous showers and, in some cases,
strong-to-severe thunderstorms. From the northern Rockies to the Great
Lakes, a stationary front is set to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms today and again on Saturday. The central High Plains have
the best odds of seeing severe storms along the front today, highlighted
with a Slight Risk for severe storms issued by the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) over western and central Nebraska. While the severe threat is not as
pronounced in the Northwest, heavy showers and thunderstorms could
generate downpours that result in flash flooding. The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) does have a Marginal Risk in place from the eastern
Washington and Oregon to the northern Rockies and central Montana. There
are also some Flood Watches in place for portions of the interior
Northwest that reside within the Marginal Risk area. By Saturday, showers
and storms lift north into the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley while still lingering in parts of the Northern Rockies. Flood
Watches remain in place in parts of the northern Rockies through Saturday.

Farther south, numerous showers and storms will form along a warm front
over the Lower Mississippi Valley and a dryline that will be positioned
deep in the heart of Texas Friday afternoon and evening. The SPC has a
Slight Risk in central Texas where severe storms could produce damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes. There is also a Marginal Risk for severe
storms along the central Gulf Coast today. A little farther north in the
Tennessee Valley, some storms may produce Excessive Rainfall rates and
resulting areas of flash flooding. WPC has issued a Marginal Risk today
from the Ozarks on east through the Tennessee Valley and into the southern
Appalachians. As low pressure moves east on Saturday, the focus for severe
weather moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley where as Slight Risk is
in place due to higher chances for severe storms containing large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. A Marginal Risk extends as far south as the
Rio Grande in west-central Texas where severe storms along the dryline are
possible.

In terms of temperatures, the West Coast will remain under the influence
of upper level troughing into the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler
than normal the next few days. This pattern will also lead to periods of
rain and high elevation mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile,
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic have one cooler than normal day in store on
Friday before finally warming up to more seasonal levels this weekend. The
hottest temperatures compared to normal reside in the Nation's Heartland
where max temperatures in the High Plains will range from the 80s in the
central Plains to the 90s in north-central Texas. Temperatures only get
hotter heading into the weekend with max temperature anomalies between
15-20 degrees above normal from north Texas to eastern Kansas and western
Missouri on Saturday. Some daytime record high temps are possible from
eastern Texas on north into western Missouri. More record heat is possible
in the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php