Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Sat May 06 2023 Valid 00Z Sun May 07 2023 - 00Z Tue May 09 2023 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains Saturday and the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern Nigh Plains... Low pressure and an associated front over the Central Plains will move eastward to the Ohio Valley by Monday evening. On Saturday, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. An additional threat of hail two-inch or greater will be over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over three regions the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning.The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. Also, on Sunday, there is a threat of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is also a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threat of showers and severe thunderstorms continues Monday over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Elsewhere, upper-level troughing and embedded upper-level energy will create rain and highest elevation light snow over the Pacific Northwest, Northern/Central California, Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains through Monday. The greatest area coverage of the rain and snow will be during the afternoon into the late evening. In the meantime, dry fuels, low humidity and gusty wind will create conditions favorable for a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Saturday and Sunday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php