Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sun May 07 2023

Valid 12Z Sun May 07 2023 - 12Z Tue May 09 2023

...Heavy rain, severe weather to impact portions of the southern and
central Plains this week...

...Below-average temperatures continue across the West, with precipitation
chances across much of the Northwest...

...Dry conditions come to an end across the East as thunderstorms forecast
to enter the region on Monday...

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue across the central
U.S. with strong to severe thunderstorms in the short-term forecast.
Persistent upper-level ridging combined with warm, moist southerly flow at
the surface are both helping to enhance instability across the region. As
a result, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the region. A Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) is in effect for
portions of the Upper-Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with the primary
threats being severe wind and large hail. Additionally, a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) is in effect for portions of north-central
Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, as strong thunderstorms are expected to
initiate off of a strong dryline draped across the region. The primary
threat with these storms will be severe wind gusts. This weather pattern
is expected to continue into early next week. On Monday and Tuesday, there
are Slight Risks of severe weather in effect over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with the primary threats bring severe wind and isolated regions of
large hail. Heavy rain and flooding is possible within these
thunderstorms, especially given high rainfall rates and the potential for
training thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4)
has been issued over portions of eastern Iowa and western Illinois.
Temperatures will vary significantly based on thunderstorm activity, but
the overall weather pattern supports above-average high temperatures for
much of the central U.S. Most highs in the mid-to-upper 80s during the
early-week across the region, which is 10-20F above average.

In the West, temperatures will continue to be well below-average to start
out this week as an amplified upper-level troughing pattern persists over
the region. On Sunday, temperatures across much of California, Oregon, and
portions of the Intermountain West will be 10-15F below average. High
temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 50s in the Intermountain
West, with 60s & 70s across northern and central California. In addition
to below-average temperatures, there are precipitation chances across much
of the Pacific Northwest. Some of this precipitation may fall as snow,
particularly in the higher elevations of northern California, Oregon,
Idaho, western Montana, and western Wyoming.

In the East, dry conditions will come to an end as a warm front approaches
the region, helping to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
precipitation band is expected to enter portions of the north-central
Appalachians on Sunday afternoon, and into the areas toward the
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. While many of these thunderstorms will be
non-severe, a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1/5) extends from
the central U.S. into the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians on Sunday, with
the primary threat being severe wind gusts. Stormy conditions are expected
to continue into early next week, especially during daylight hours, as a
cold front progresses through the region. A brief wave of cool
temperatures are expected in a localized region encompassing the coastal
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this week following a cold frontal passage,
with highs expected to be in the 60s early this week across the region.

Genz

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php