Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 00Z Mon May 08 2023 - 00Z Wed May 10 2023 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Central/Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, a Marginal Risk in the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Monday, and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern High Plains... A wavy front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains will have waves of low pressure traveling along the boundary through Tuesday evening. On Sunday, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. An additional threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater will be over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over two regions, the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threat of showers and severe thunderstorms continues Tuesday over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The showers and thunderstorms will also produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday. Therefore, on Tuesday, the WPC issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over two regions, the Central Plains and the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Elsewhere, upper-level troughing and embedded upper-level energy will create rain and highest elevation light snow over the Pacific Northwest, Northern/Central California, Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains through Tuesday. The greatest areal coverage of the rain and snow will be during the afternoon into the late evening. In the meantime, dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty wind will create conditions favorable for a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern High Plains on Sunday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php