Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Mon May 08 2023

Valid 12Z Mon May 08 2023 - 12Z Wed May 10 2023

...Severe storms and flash flooding expected today from the southern &
central Plains to the central Appalachians today...

...More severe weather and possible flash flooding anticipated on Tuesday
from the central & southern Plains to the Carolinas...

...Summer-like heat in portions of the Heartland & South the first half of
the week; the Northeast cools off on Tuesday, the West Coast stays cool
through mid-week...

A stormy first half of the week is on tap from the Nation's Heartland to
the Mid-Atlantic as a series of frontal systems feed off a steady feed of
Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing both severe weather and
flash flooding. For Monday, the focus for severe weather looks to
consolidate from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley, as well
as along the dryline in Texas and Oklahoma. Slight Risks (threat level 2)
for severe storms have been issued from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
for portions of these regions, with the better odds for tornadoes
occurring from the Ozarks to southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky. With no
shortage of available moisture, thunderstorms in south Texas, the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and from the western Great Lakes to the central
Appalachians all could produce areas of flash flooding. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) does Marginal Risks (threat level 1) for these
aforementioned areas, including a Slight Risk (threat level 2) for areas
along and north of the Mississippi-Ohio River Confluence.

By Tuesday, a cold front pushes farther south through the Mid-South and
Carolinas, setting up the next round of severe storms to become oriented
along the front. The SPC has an elongated Marginal Risk (threat level 1)
stretching from the central High Plains to as far south and east as
northern Mississippi. The area with the best chances for severe weather
resides in southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and into portions of the
Texas Panhandle where a Slight Risk (threat level 2) is in place. It is
here where both a stalling front and the dryline will be the catalysts for
severe storms Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Farther east, the
Carolinas will also be at risk for severe storms, highlighted by a Slight
Risk in eastern North Carolina. In terms of Excessive Rainfall, WPC has a
Slight Risk out for southeast Texas, which does include the Houston metro
area. There is also a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the central
Plains on Tuesday as well. Storms will be capable of downpours in the
coastal Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, but faster storm motions will limit the
flash flood threat better than in southeast Texas and the central Plains,
where slower storm motions and rich Gulf of Mexico moisture is available
to developing storms.

Temperature-wise, the warmest temperatures compared to normal will be most
commonly found in the Nation's Heartland and across the South. It will
feel more like June from the southern High Plains to the Southeast coast
through Tuesday as daytime high temps range between 5-15 degrees above
normal. This equates to a footprint of 90 degree highs deep in the heart
of Texas on Monday, with some 90 degree temps expected in parts of the
Southeast on Tuesday. The combination of hot temperatures, dry humidity
levels, and gusty winds has prompted the issuance of an Elevated Risk for
fire weather conditions in parts of the southern High Plains. Daily
minimum temps will also be quite abnormally warm for early May not just in
the South and the Heartland, but parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast
for Monday. Speaking of the Northeast,  passing cold front late Monday
will usher in a taste of below normal temperatures on Tuesday, capping
most daytime highs from reach 70 degrees from northern Virginia on north
to New England. The western third of the U.S. will remain the most
consistently cooler than normal region through the first half of the week
as upper level trough remains overhead. Daytime high temps will be as cool
as 10-20 degrees below normal for much of California, in the Great Basin,
and the Pacific Northwest

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php