Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 09 2023 - 00Z Thu May 11 2023

...An active period of showers and thunderstorms expected across large
portions of the nation over the next few days...

...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across eastern and coastal
Texas...

...Above average temperatures expected across much of the Plains,
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, while below average temperatures
expected along the West coast, inland into the Great Basin and across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...

...Fire Weather threat to continue across the Southern High Plains...


A surface frontal boundary stretching from the the Southern Plains,
eastward through the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic will be the focus for active showers and thunderstorms over
the next 12 to 36 hours.    An area of showers and thunderstorms expected
to push east southeastward from the lower Great Lakes, across the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Monday evening into early Tuesday,
producing areas of locally heavy rains.  The best chance for isolated
flash flooding and severe thunderstorms with this area of showers and
thunderstorms will be from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley Monday evening/night and then across the eastern Carolinas during
Tuesday. 

At the same time, an upper level system will rotate east northeastward
from northern California into the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies
region from this afternoon into Tuesday.  This system will also support
widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern U.S., although
any rainfall amounts are not expected to produce any significant flooding
threat. 

To the south of this,  a stronger area of upper level energy will push
quickly inland across Southern California on Tuesday and through the
Southwest on Wednesday.  This system will be moisture starved with little
if any precip expected to California or the Southwest over the next two
day.  More widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms possible ahead
of this strong upper system across the Great Basin and Central to Northern
Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening.

The best chances for heavy rains over the next two days will be across
portions of eastern and coastal Texas.  Several waves of upper level
energy expected to push east northeastward from northeastern Mexico into
Texas and support a heavy rainfall threat over the next two days across
these region.  With the potential for more than one round of heavy rains
to affect portions of eastern and coastal Texas, there will be the threat
of isolated flash flooding.  The heavy rains are expected to fall,
however, to the east of areas of central and western Texas that remain in
severe to exceptional drought.   

The continued dry conditions and increasingly gusty winds across the
Southern High Plains, will support an increasing fire weather threat for
this region over the next two days, especially across much of New Mexico,
southeast Colorado, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and Southwest Texas.

Temperatures expected to remain above average for the early part of the
week across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast.
 Below average temperatures expected along the west coast into the Great
Basin, across eastern Texas where heavy rains will limit sunshine and
across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday where rains will
also limit the amount of sunshine.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php