Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Tue May 09 2023

Valid 12Z Tue May 09 2023 - 12Z Thu May 11 2023

...Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across southeast Texas over the
next few days...

...Scattered chances for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
throughout the central Plains today and into the central/northern High
Plains on Wednesday...

...Fire Weather concerns exist from the southern Rockies to the
Southwest...

An active spring weather pattern is set to impact much of the Nation
through Thursday, with numerous chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy
rain. Intense rainfall rates and flash flooding will be the greatest
concern across much of southeast Texas today and Wednesday, as the
potential for several rounds of heavy rain could lead to localized
rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches. As a result, instances of flash
flooding are considered likely from the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast
to areas inland across the southeast Texas Triangle, which includes the
entire Houston metro region. The heavy rainfall threat will linger into
Wednesday for the same area due the eventual organized convective complex
drifting very slowly northward into more of eastern Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. In order to further highlight the flash flood concern,
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much
of Southeast Texas today and Wednesday. Residents and visitors throughout
this region are advised to pay close attention to the forecast, especially
if residing within a flood-prone region. As always, be sure to never drive
through a flooded roadway and have multiple ways to receive warnings.

A frontal boundary sinking southward along the East Coast over the next
few days while remaining quasi-stationary across the central Plains will
be the focus for a few rounds of thunderstorms, some of which could turn
severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible
across Kansas and far northern Oklahoma. The potential also exists for
these thunderstorms to contain locally heavy rain, which could lead to
isolated flooding concerns. Farther east, a few strong storms are also
possible throughout extreme southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina
today along the advancing cold front. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms is in effect for both of the aforementioned regions today.

By Wednesday and Thursday, a strengthening storm system over the central
High Plains in response to a deep upper-trough exiting the Southwest will
aid in the potential for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms throughout
much of the central and northern High Plains. With plentiful atmospheric
moisture surging northward and upslope enhancement at work, widespread
areal average precipitation amounts between 1-3" across eastern Wyoming,
southeast Montana, and parts of the western Dakotas are forecast through
Thursday. This may lead to scattered instances of flash, urban, and small
stream flooding. Severe thunderstorms in the form of large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes are also possible, with the threat shifting farther
east into much of the central/northern Plains on Thursday. For the higher
elevations above 9000 feet throughout Wyoming and Colorado, conditions are
expected to be cold enough for potentially heavy snow. Meanwhile, on the
southern side of this developing system, strong winds and low relative
humidity will create Critical Fire Weather conditions from south-central
Colorado throughout much of New Mexico on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are
in affect for this region as well.

Elsewhere, well above average temperatures are forecast from the Southeast
to the southern Plains today, with warmth spreading into the Midwest,
Great Lakes, and Northeast by Thursday. However, before the warmth returns
northward, high temperatures are forecast to remain below average today
across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. High temperatures will
struggle to reach out of the 60s today across the Northeast until 80s are
possible by the end of the week.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php