Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 12Z Wed May 10 2023 - 12Z Fri May 12 2023

...Heavy rain and flash flooding is likely across southeast Texas and the
Lower Mississippi Valley through early Thursday before the next round of
excessive rainfall enters south-central Texas on Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to impact parts of the central
and northern Plains over the next few days...

...Fire Weather concerns exist from the southern Rockies to the
Southwest...


The central United States will have no shortage of active weather through
the end of this week as chances for severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding span each day, while including a majority of the Great Plains.
Starting in southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, clusters of
slow-moving thunderstorms within a moisture-rich environment will be
capable of containing intense rainfall rates and lead to the threat of
flash flooding through early Thursday. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for southeast Texas and along the
eastern Texas-western Louisiana border, including the cities of Shreveport
and Lake Charles, LA as well as Houston, TX. Urban regions and flood-prone
areas will be most at risk to rapid onset flooding, as well as locations
that possibly experience over 5 inches of rain. The heavy rainfall threat
will gradually lift northeastward into northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas tonight, potentially lingering into Thursday morning. Residents
and visitors are advised to heed any issued warnings and never drive
through a flooded roadway.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough traversing the Southwest and southern
Rockies will aid in a developing storm system over the central High Plains
that will help fuel the chances for numerous showers and thunderstorms
throughout the northern and central Plains through the end of the week.
Plentiful atmospheric moisture content surging northward throughout the
Great Plains combined with upslope enhancement in the High Plains will
allow for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flood concerns across eastern
Wyoming today and much of the central/northern High Plains on Thursday.
Additionally, thunderstorms may turn severe for this region while also
extending south into western Oklahoma, possibly containing damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Other aspects of this storm system
will include high elevation heavy snow above about 9000 feet throughout
Colorado and Wyoming, while fire weather concerns exist across the
southern Rockies and Southwest today. Gusty winds and low relative
humidity have prompted Red Flag Warnings throughout most of New Mexico and
southeast Arizona. As the system gradually slides east on Thursday, the
severe weather threat will shift east and include more of the Great
Plains. Thunderstorm activity is expected to stretch into the Ohio Valley
along a warm front on Friday as well, which could bring chances for severe
weather and flash flooding.

The next round of excessive rainfall to impact the Lone Star State is set
to enter south-central portions of the region on Friday and linger into
the weekend. The main impacts through early Saturday are anticipated to be
associated with the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. Although
this part of the country is designated as being within severe to
exceptional drought, the expected rainfall amounts are forecast to lead to
numerous flash flooding chances. As a result, a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued for parts of south-central Texas and the Hill
Country.

Elsewhere, warming temperatures are forecast through much of the northern
U.S., stretching from the Northeast to the Pacific Northwest and including
much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This early taste of summer is
expected to spread from the north-central States today into the Northeast
by Thursday, with well above average temperatures building into the
Northwest on Friday. High temperatures in these locations are forecast to
reach as high as the low-to-mid 80s, which equates to general anomalies up
to around 15 degrees above average.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php