Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Valid 12Z Tue May 16 2023 - 12Z Thu May 18 2023

...Heavy rainfall, flooding and severe weather are possible across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic today...

...Above-normal temperatures continue in the West; East Coast cools
down....

A deepening upper-level trough centered over the Northeast and southeast
Canada will generate multiple weather hazards across the East Coast today.
First, a developing cold front will move across the Mississippi Valley
toward the Mid-Atlantic. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop along and
around this boundary. The strongest storms and rainfall will focus around
the surface wave moving through the lower Ohio Valley and Appalachians
today. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms due to the potential for the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage, isolated large hail
and a few tornadoes across parts of the Southern/Central Appalachians this
afternoon and evening. There's also a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash flooding across portions of the Ohio Valley and
Central/Southern Appalachians today. Substantial moisture and instability
aided by areas of elevated terrain could be a recipe for instances of
flash flooding, especially over saturated soils.

Second, dry and windy conditions will support an elevated risk of fire
weather over portions of upstate New York and southern New England today.
Temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s on Wednesday behind a strong
cold front. Some low minimum temperatures may be tied or broken in the
Northeast tonight as a result.

A large East-Pacific trough and building western U.S. ridge will
contribute to the above normal temperature trend across the West this
week. Warm air will work its way from the West Coast into inland areas and
the Great Basin by mid-to-late week. High temperatures will be well above
normal across the West and northern tier states today. Low temperature
records may be tied or broken along the Pacific Northwest coast tonight as
temps fail to drop below the mid 50s. Things begin to warm up again over
the Pac NW on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and 90s, representing 15-25
degree anomalies. The low temperature record breaking trend will continue
through late this week in the West.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php