Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 12Z Wed May 17 2023 - 12Z Fri May 19 2023

...Above-normal temperatures continue in the West...

...There's a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
over portions of the Central/Southern Plains on Thursday night...

...Freezing low temperatures possible over portions of the Northeast
tonight...

A cold front associated with a deep upper trough will sweep through the
Northern Plains today and initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region through this evening. Upper vortices propagating through
the Southern Plains will promote thunderstorm development over New Mexico
and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this evening. Shortwave energy moving
through the Southeast will generate scattered thunderstorms across the
region this afternoon and evening. Dry and windy conditions will support
an elevated fire weather risk along the Northeast coast today.

The Northern Plains cold front will move into the Upper Midwest and
re-initiate storms along its boundary on Thursday afternoon. Storms,
enhanced by cyclogenesis, will also develop along the southern section of
the cold front in eastern Colorado and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles
Thursday evening. These storms, supported by favorable dynamics and moving
into an area of substantial instability will produce heavy rainfall from
southeastern Colorado to central Kansas/Oklahoma on Thursday night. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
as a result. An East Coast cold front may bring another round of showers
and thunderstorm activity to the Southeast on Thursday afternoon and
evening.

An upper ridge will build over the West in the coming days. Anomalous heat
is expected for much of the region as a result. Temperatures are likely to
be between 20-25 degrees above average in many places, while the Pacific
Northwest will experience the most anomalous warmth with highs in the 80s
and 90s. Warm lows in the 50s and 60s may end up breaking records through
the weekend. Temperatures in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be
above average out ahead of the approaching cold front/deep upper trough
combo today. The strong cold front sweeping down the East Coast will
introduce cooler air to the region over the next couple of days. Frigid
temps are expected in the Northeast today with anomalies ranging between
15-25 degrees below average. Low temperatures hovering around freezing in
the Northeast may tie or break records tonight. Crops and livestock that
are sensitive to freezing temperatures are susceptible to adverse impacts
tonight.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php