Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 18 2023 - 00Z Sat May 20 2023

...Above-normal temperatures continue in the West...

...An elevated risk of Flash Flooding exists over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains on Thursday night...

...A late spring freeze is possible over portions of the Northeast
tonight...

The Northern Plains cold front/surface trough will move into the Upper
Midwest and storms will redevelop along the boundary on Thursday afternoon
due to daytime heating.  Storms due to the associated instability and
sufficient moisture will also develop along the southern section of the
boundary in eastern Colorado and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Thursday
evening. These storms will produce heavy rainfall from southeastern
Colorado to central Kansas/Oklahoma on Thursday night, leading to an
elevated risk of flash flooding.  An East Coast cold front may bring
another round of showers and thunderstorm activity to the Southeast on
Thursday afternoon and evening, with thunderstorms possible along the
immediate coast of the Carolinas on Friday.

An upper ridge will build over the West in the coming days. Anomalous heat
is expected for much of the region as a result. Temperatures are likely to
be between 20-25 degrees above average in many places, while the Pacific
Northwest will experience the most anomalous warmth with highs in the 80s
and 90s. Warm lows in the 50s and 60s may end up breaking records through
the weekend. The strong cold front sweeping down the East Coast will
introduce cooler air to the region over the next couple of days.  Low
temperatures descending to and below freezing in the Northeast could set
new records by Thursday morning, approaching record cold for so late in
the spring.  Crops and livestock that are sensitive to freezing
temperatures are susceptible to adverse impacts tonight.

Roth/Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php