Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 22 2023 - 00Z Wed May 24 2023

...Severe storms possible across the Texas Panhandle and southern Plains
Monday...

...Well above normal temperatures for the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain continue over the
northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast...

A forming cold front over the Pacific Northwest will be the impetus for
scattered thunderstorms this evening, as the Storm Prediction Center
denotes a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. This front will
continue eastward on Monday and serve as a focus for additional showers
and storms across Montana. In advance of the system, well above normal
temperatures over eastern Montana on Sunday will slide eastward across the
northern Plains Monday and into the Upper Midwest Tuesday. Widespread 80s
are expected with some areas reaching 90F. A Canadian cold front will dip
southward into Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and help trigger some showers
and storms with cooler temperatures behind it. Temperatures over much of
the rest of the Great Basin/Southwest and interior California will be near
to above normal to start the work week.

Over and near the Texas Panhandle tomorrow, severe storms are possible on
Monday with localized heavy rain and isolated flash flooding. With higher
than average moisture values over the Rockies, scattered showers and
storms will dot the landscape westward to Nevada especially during the
afternoon. Much of the eastern half of the Lower 48 will see rather
tranquil conditions during the next two days as a weak frontal system over
the Great Lakes into the Northeast slowly dissipates. Temperatures will be
near normal in the 70s to around 80F. However, over the Southeast and
northeast Gulf Coast, a lingering frontal boundary will stall across
northern Florida, acting to keep temperatures down just a bit due to an
abundance of clouds and widespread showers with some thunderstorms.
Rainfall chances will be highest along the GA/FL border into the FL
Peninsula during the next few days. Given enough rainfall over the same
areas, flash flooding is possible especially in more urban areas and where
rainfall comes down the heaviest. Temperatures may only hold in the 70s to
low 80s in this area.

Fracasso

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php