Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023

Valid 12Z Mon May 22 2023 - 12Z Wed May 24 2023

...Showers, thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain continue over the
northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast...

...Severe storms possible for portions of the Southern High Plains
Monday-Tuesday...

...Well above average temperatures for the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest...

A cold front that has stalled in the Florida/Georgia border vicinity will
be the focus for shower and thunderstorm chances in the area the next
couple of days. Some instances of flash flooding will be a concern as
moisture pooling along the boundary will help promote heavy rain producing
storms, and storms are expected to move slow/cluster along the boundary
given weak flow aloft. This will be more likely on Tuesday as rain from
the proceeding days leads to more saturated conditions, and a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place for portions of southeastern
Georgia and the northern Florida Peninsula. Further west, weak
disturbances passing over the Central/Southern Plains should be enough to
trigger afternoon thunderstorm development Monday-Tuesday. Moist,
southeasterly flow will lead to some locally heavy rain, with isolated
flash flooding possible. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) over portions of
the Southern High Plains where cooler air aloft will lead to more robust
thunderstorms that may produce some large hail and gusty winds. High
temperatures will be unseasonably cool for portions of both the Southeast
and Central/Southern Plains given the rain and cloudy skies in the area,
with highs mostly in the 70s. Highs will warm into the mid-80s to low 90s
south of the precipitation in Florida, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Texas.

To the north, high pressure settling in over the Midwest/Northeast
following the passage of a cold front over the weekend will keep
precipitation chances low and temperatures mild. Forecast highs
Monday-Tuesday range from the mid-60s to low 70s for New England and the
70s to low 80s for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. Temperatures will
continue to be much above average over the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest as an upper-level ridge remains in place. Forecast highs will
generally be in the mid-80s, with some low 90s possible Monday in eastern
Montana. Frontal systems pushing through the Northern Rockies/Great Basin
will help initiate showers and thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday.
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with anomalously high moisture in
the region. A few isolated instances of flash flooding are possible,
particularly in terrain sensitive areas and over burn scars. Highs behind
the fronts over the Pacific Northwest will be cool and mostly in the 60s.
To the south, highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s for the Great
Basin and Central/Southern Rockies, the mid-80s to mid-90s for the central
California valleys, and the upper 90s to low 100s for the Desert
Southwest. Coastal California will remain cooler in the 60s.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php