Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 23 2023 - 00Z Thu May 25 2023

...Showers, thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain continue over the
northeast Gulf Coast/Southeast...

...Severe storms possible for portions of the southern High Plains through
early Wednesday...

...Well above average temperatures for the northern Plains into the upper
Midwest will be followed by a significant cool down over the Great Lakes
and upper Midwest on Wednesday ...

A cold front that has stalled across the Florida Panhandle will continue
to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the front
from Georgia to northern Florida for the next couple of days.  Some
instances of flash flooding will be a concern as moisture pooling along
the boundary will help promote heavy rain due to slow-moving storms under
weak flow aloft. This will be more likely on Tuesday as rain from the
proceeding days leads to more saturated conditions, where a slight risk of
excessive rainfall is anticipated for portions of southeastern Georgia and
the northern Florida Peninsula into the Panhandle.  Farther northwest,
upper-level impulses and remnants of convective complexes passing over the
central/southern Plains should be enough to trigger afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for the next couple of days.  Moist, southeasterly flow will
lead to some locally heavy rain, with isolated flash flooding possible. 
In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over portions of the southern High Plains where
cooler air aloft will lead to more robust thunderstorms that may produce
some large hail and gusty winds.  High temperatures will be unseasonably
cool for portions of both the Southeast and central/southern Plains given
the rain and cloudy skies in the area, where highs are forecast to be
mostly in the 70s.  Highs will soar into the mid-80s to low 90s south of
the precipitation in Florida, the lower Mississippi Valley, and Texas.

Across the northern tier, high pressure settling in over the
Midwest/Northeast following the passage of a weakening front will keep
precipitation chances low and temperatures mild. Forecast highs on Tuesday
will range from the mid-60s to low 70s for New England and the 70s to low
80s for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.  Meanwhile, temperatures will
continue to be much above average over the northern Plains into the upper
Midwest as an upper-level ridge remains in place.  By Tuesday, rain is
forecast to arrive near the Canadian border ahead of a sharp cold front
dipping steadily southward from Canada.  During the day on Wednesday, the
eastern portion of the sharp front is forecast to pass through New England
where the strong dynamics aloft could help trigger some heavy rain. 
Blustery north to northwesterly winds behind the sharp front will usher in
much cooler air from Canada, leading to steady or even falling
temperatures during the day on Wednesday across the Great Lakes into
interior New England.  This will be in stark contrast to the very warm
upper 80's expected across the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, frontal systems pushing through the northern Rockies/Great
Basin will help initiate showers and thunderstorms especially on Tuesday. 
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with anomalously high moisture in
the region.  A few isolated instances of flash flooding are possible,
particularly in terrain sensitive areas and over burn scars.  Highs behind
the fronts over the Pacific Northwest will be cool and mostly in the 60s. 
To the south, highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s for the Great
Basin and central/southern Rockies where showers and thunderstorms are
expected to be most active from the afternoon into the evening hours. 
Temperatures will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s for the central California
valleys, and the upper 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest.  Coastal
California will remain cooler in the 60s.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php