Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Valid 12Z Tue May 23 2023 - 12Z Thu May 25 2023

...Showers, thunderstorms, and locally heavy rain expected for portions of
the Southeast and Central/Southern Plains...

...Severe storms possible for portions of the Southern High Plains
Tuesday...

...Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding chances continue for the
Intermountain West...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue north of a stalled front
lingering over Florida the next couple of days, focusing from the
northeast Gulf coast into Alabama/Georgia Tuesday and the Florida
Peninsula Wednesday.  Some instances of flash flooding will be a concern
as moisture pooling along the boundary will help contribute to heavy rain
producing storms.  Weak flow aloft will also lead to clustering, slow
moving storms and locally heavy rain totals.  To the northwest, weak
impulses aloft over a surface trough/pseudo-dryline and developing frontal
boundary over the Central/Southern Plains will trigger additional daily
rounds of storms. Moist southeasterly flow will help contribute to locally
heavy rain chances and the risk for isolated instances of flash flooding
here as well.  In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Southern High
Plains Tuesday where cooler air aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear will
lead to more robust, supercell thunderstorms that may produce some large
hail and gusty winds.  High temperatures will continue to be unseasonably
cool for late May across portions of both the Southeast and
Central/Southern Plains given the rain and cloudy skies in the area, with
many locations only topping off in the mid-70s.  Highs will be warmer
south of the precipitation in south Florida, the Lower Mississippi Valley,
and Texas, reaching into the mid-80s to low 90s.

Highs will be seasonably warm and precipitation chances low across the
Midwest into the Northeast Tuesday with high pressure in place. Mid-70s to
low 80s can be expected for most locations.  Meanwhile, temperatures will
continue to be above average by 10-20 degrees over the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest under the influence of an upper-level ridge, with
highs reaching into the mid- to upper-80s.  A cold front pushing southward
from Canada late Tuesday into Wednesday will increase precipitation
chances from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.  Cooler air behind
the front will drop highs into the 50s to low 60s for portions of the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday.

Upper-level energy rotating around a slow moving trough over the Northwest
will push a couple cold fronts through portions of the Northern Rockies
and Great Basin Tuesday-Wednesday, keeping up precipitation chances. 
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with anomalously high moisture in
the region.  A few isolated instances of flash flooding are possible,
particularly in terrain sensitive areas and over burn scars. Highs will
generally be in the 70s to low 80s.  Temperatures will be a bit cooler
behind the fronts over the Pacific Northwest, with highs mostly in the 60s
Tuesday before warming up a bit into the 70s on Wednesday. To the south,
forecast highs will range from the mid-80s to low-90s for the central
California valleys and Southern Rockies to the upper 90s for the Desert
Southwest.  Coastal California will remain cooler in the 60s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php