Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Valid 00Z Wed May 24 2023 - 00Z Fri May 26 2023

...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain to
impact parts of the Southeast, northern/central Great Basin, northern
Rockies,  and much of the High Plains over the next few days...

...Well above average temperatures confined to the northern Plains and
Pacific Northwest through Thursday, while much cooler temperatures are set
to enter the Great Lakes and Northeast...

A slow-moving frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast and developing area of
low pressure over southern Florida on Wednesday will continue to aid in
producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
Gulf Coast and Sunshine State over the next few days. The greatest threat
associated with ongoing and future thunderstorms are likely to be
associated with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, with a
low-end threat of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The shower and
thunderstorm activity should confine to the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday
and Thursday as the frontal boundary inches into central/southern Florida.

Along this same frontal boundary as it extends into the southern Plains, a
separate threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall exists from the Texas
Panhandle to central Texas through Wednesday. Large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible as thunderstorms develop ahead of
a dryline progressing eastward off the high terrain of the southern
Rockies this afternoon. Another round of isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, with the threat shifting north
into the Oklahoma Panhandle and far southeast Colorado. Along with the
severe weather threat, ample springtime atmospheric moisture content
combined with instability from daytime heating and an upper-level trough
over the western U.S. will allow for an isolated flash flooding threat
within any slow-moving storms. Localized heavy rainfall could occur along
much of the central and southern High Plains, as well as into central
Texas. The potential for excessive rainfall also exists across the
central/northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern High Plains
as well. A frontal boundary in this area may focus scattered
thunderstorms, some of which could contain locally intense rainfall rates
capable of producing flash flooding. While the threat of heavy rain covers
a large region over the next several days, coverage is expected to be
isolated and impacts constricted to narrow corridors where storms overlap
and/or move slowly.

Well above average high temperatures (10 to 15 degrees above climatology
for the date) are forecast across the northern Plains through Thursday and
the Pacific Northwest by the latter part of the week. This equates to
highs into the low-to-mid 80s. Meanwhile, a strong cold front swinging
through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday will offer
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as cooler temperatures.
Lows into the 40s and upper 30s are forecast throughout the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Thursday morning as a potent high pressure system builds
into the region.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php