Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 25 2023 - 00Z Sat May 27 2023

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern High Plains this
evening...

...Isolated to scattered locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact
parts of the Southeast, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and much of the
High Plains over the next few days...

...Well above average temperatures confined to the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the end of the week, while much cooler temperatures
push into the Great Lakes and Northeast...

Two main areas of active weather are forecast to impact the Nation through
the end of this week, with chances for severe thunderstorms and localized
heavy rain. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances are expected
across the Intermountain West, Rockies, and High Plains as a slow-moving
longwave upper-level trough anchors over the western United States. Severe
weather chances are greatest this evening across the southern High Plains,
where the Storm Prediction Center highlights an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms across parts eastern New Mexico and northwest
Texas. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are
possible into the overnight hours. Additionally, a few storms could
contain intense rainfall rates and lead to localized flooding. An isolated
severe and flash flooding threat also extends into the Intermountain West,
northern Rockies, and central/northern High Plains between this evening
and Friday due to daily thunderstorm chances.

Meanwhile, a lingering frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula and
developing area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will allow for
unsettled weather throughout the Sunshine State and Southeast coastal
region through Friday. Thunderstorm chances should become more isolated
over Florida on Thursday, but precipitation will spread northward toward
the coastal Carolinas on Friday. Rain could be locally heavy at times and
lead to isolated flooding concerns. Additionally, gusty northeasterly
winds associated with the aforementioned low pressure system could create
rough surf and beach hazards from North Carolina to Florida into early
this weekend.

Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest, West Coast, and much of
the eastern half of the Nation (outside of Florida and the Southeast) to
end the last full week of May. Strong high pressure building into the
Great Lakes and Northeast will usher in below average temperatures. In
fact, lows are expected to dip into the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s
across the Great Lakes and Northeast both Thursday and Friday morning.
This may lead to isolated frost in the early morning hours. Elsewhere,
above average temperatures throughout the northern Plains are forecast to
migrate into the Upper Midwest by Friday, with highs into the mid-80s.
Warm temperatures are also expected throughout the Northwest ahead of the
holiday weekend, with highs into the low 80s.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php