Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Valid 12Z Thu May 25 2023 - 12Z Sat May 27 2023

...Isolated to scattered locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact
parts of the Southeast, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and much of the
High Plains over the next few days...

...Above average temperatures for the northwestern and north-central U.S.
while cooler than average temperatures likely for the East Coast...

...Increasing threat for winds and rip currents for beaches across the
southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday...

A slow moving upper level pattern will remain over the lower 48 through
the end of the week which means the weather will be similar from day to
day for different regions of the country with minor exceptions. In the
western U.S., a slow moving upper level trough will slowly edge eastward
into the Great Basin through Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop and peak in coverage and intensity during the afternoon and
evening hours for portions of the Great Basin into the northern and
central Rocky Mountains. Slow movement of individual thunderstorms will
result in isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding. Farther
east into the High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
during the afternoon and persist for some locations well into the night.
These storms will also pose a flash flood risk as well as a threat for
large hail and damaging straight line winds along with possible tornadoes
for the southern High Plains. High temperatures are forecast to run
roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for parts of the Northwest and a
large portion of the north-central U.S. through the end of the week.

Over the eastern U.S., upper level troughing will be present including the
expected development of an anomalous mid-level low over the Southeast for
Friday and Saturday. Increased levels of cloud cover will be likely for
coastal regions of the southern Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida today
along with light rain along the coast. More typical afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are expected for central to southern Florida today.
Beginning on Friday however, an area of low pressure is expected to
organize along a slow moving frontal boundary off of the Southeast coast
which will allow for increasing onshore low level winds into the
Carolinas, continuing through Saturday. Heavy rain is expected just
offshore of the Carolinas but some of this heavy rain may impact coastal
regions, supporting a low end threat for flash flooding. In addition,
gusty northeasterly winds associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system could create rough surf and beach hazards from North Carolina to
Florida on Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile the clouds and precipitation
will help to keep temperatures cooler than late-May averages (10-15
degrees cooler) for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, with locations in the
Northeast experiencing a warming trend through Saturday.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php