Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023

Valid 12Z Fri May 26 2023 - 12Z Sun May 28 2023

...A low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy rain, gusty
winds and hazardous beach conditions for the Southeast over the Memorial
Day weekend...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days...

...Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...

An abnormally slow weather pattern is forecast to prevail across the
mainland U.S. as we head toward and into the Memorial Day weekend.  First
of all, fine weather will prevail across the entire northeastern quadrant
of the country into the northern Plains under the influence of a large and
cool high pressure system.  The cool temperatures will continue across New
England for one more morning today but the strong May sun will warm
temperatures to above normal levels by Saturday afternoon as they reach
into the mid to upper 70s.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system that has been developing over Florida
will bring deteriorating weather into the Southeast for the Memorial Day
weekend.  This system will have a chance to gather some strength over the
warm waters off the southeastern U.S. the next couple of days as it heads
north toward the Carolinas.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms ahead of
the storm center are forecast to move onshore into the Carolinas on
Saturday before the storm center itself makes landfall early on Sunday.  
Scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible with the heaviest
rains.  Meanwhile, beach conditions along the southeastern U.S. coast will
be hazardous through the weekend with gusty winds and frequent rip
currents likely.  By early on Sunday, some of the heavy rain is expected
to spread farther inland and may reach southern Virginia.

On the west side of this abnormally slow weather pattern will be an upper
level trough forecast to linger across the western U.S.  Showers and
thunderstorms will prevail each day over parts of the High Plains due to
persistent troughing and enhanced convergence in this region.  Locally
heavy rainfall may lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding.  Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will also be
possible.  The Storm Prediction Center has a couple of Slight Risk areas
today across much of the High Plains with an embedded enhanced risk over
the southern High Plains.

Temperatures will trend above average for the majority of the Northwest
and north-central U.S. with highs in the 70s and 80s. Above average
temperatures will expand into the Northeast Saturday and Sunday as a warm
front lifts north of the region, and highs will reach into the 80s by
Sunday.  In contrast, considerable cloud cover and precipitation
associated with the coastal storm will result in below normal temperatures
in the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend with
highs only reaching the 60s and lower 70s.

Kong/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php