Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 12Z Sun May 28 2023 - 12Z Tue May 30 2023

...A convective low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy
rain, gusty winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic through the Memorial Day weekend...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days...

...Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...

A sluggish flow pattern will continue to feature troughing across both the
West and the East Coasts against a slow-moving ridge over the Northeast. 
The western trough, with cooler temperatures aloft, will help trigger
additional showers and thunderstorms across the Great Basin into the
Northern Rockies of Montana each day once daytime heating increases the
available instability.  Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
most active from late afternoon into the evening hours from southeast
Montana down through the western Panhandle of Texas through the Memorial
Day weekend.  Embedded within the strong to severe thunderstorms will be
heavy rainfall that is prone to result in a slight to moderate risk of
flash flooding across the western half of Texas early this morning. The
severe weather and flash flooding risks will become more limited in 
coverage and intensity for the rest of today and through the next couple 
of days as the upper-level energy weakens, and the rain axis shifts east 
into the Great Plains.

Meanwhile, convection associated with a low pressure system centered just
off the South Carolina coast has weakened.  Nevertheless, new bands of
heavy rain are pushing onshore early this morning into the coastal plain
of the Carolinas, with another batch of moderate to heavy rain moving well
inland across the central Appalachians.  Coastal communities across the
Southeast are still experiencing gusty winds, high surfs, and dangerous
rip currents.  As the core of the low pressure system moves farther inland
today, the associated rain and gusty winds will gradually weaken. 
However, the sluggish and blocky flow pattern will likely keep the
remnants of the system over the southern to central Mid-Atlantic States
with cloudy and rainy conditions lingering there for the next few days.

Elsewhere, across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast and
Southwest should continue to enjoy a very pleasant weekend.  Temperatures
will be average for much of the southern portion of the central U.S.;
though the northern tier, particularly the Plains and upper Great Lakes
will see above normal, but not oppressive, temperatures in the 70s and
80s.  New England will see temperatures cool back down into the 70s on
Memorial Day behind a back-door cold front.

Kong/Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php