Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 29 2023 - 00Z Wed May 31 2023

...Unsettled and cool weather remains across the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great
Basin, northern and central Rockies, Great Plains, and Upper Midwest for
the next few days...

...Above average temperatures forecast throughout the northern half of the
Nation...

A somewhat stagnant upper-level pattern featuring cutoff upper-level lows
over the Mid-Atlantic and off the California Coast, as well as an
upper-level high over the Great Lakes and Northeast, will allow for a
similar weather pattern to remain through at least Tuesday. A slow-moving
low pressure system pushing further inland over eastern North Carolina
this afternoon will spread shower and thunderstorm activity into much of
the Mid-Atlantic. This system will gradually weaken, but remain mostly
stationary and allow for renewed daily scattered showers/thunderstorms on
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances mostly span from the Delmarva Peninsula
and southern Maryland to much of West Virginia, Virginia, and North
Carolina. A few storms could contain intense rainfall rates and lead to
localized flooding concerns, particularly over western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia through tonight. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure
system to the north will limit much northward progress in the
precipitation shield as dry air infiltrates from the northeast. These
gusty northeast winds will also keep much of the Mid-Atlantic within below
average temperatures, while also creating dangerous rip currents and large
breaking waves along beaches.

Active weather will also continue throughout much of the Intermountain
West spanning across the Rockies and into the Plains. Troughing over the
West will support continued thunderstorm activity while also providing
support for moist air to continue flowing northward out of the Gulf of
Mexico and eastern Pacific into the Great Plains. Thunderstorms are most
likely to turn severe across parts of the central/southern Plains this
evening, with an isolated severe threat stretching into the northern
Plains on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Additionally, isolated instances of
flash flooding are also possible in these regions, with a higher threat of
slow-moving heavy downpours over South Texas and middle-to-lower Texas
coasts on Monday. A gradual eastward shift in developing convection will
allow for rain chances to also enter the Upper Midwest by Monday. For
northern California and the central/northern Great Basin, scattered
showers and thunderstorms could occur over regions with swollen rivers and
high stream flows due to snowmelt, as well as sensitive terrain associated
with burn scars.

The temperature outlook for the Nation will feature most locations
experiencing high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through Tuesday. This
equates to above average temperatures throughout the northern half of the
country and below average across the southern tier.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php