Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 12Z Mon May 29 2023 - 12Z Wed May 31 2023

...Cool and damp weather remains across the Mid-Atlantic next few days but
fine and mild weather farther north across New England...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, Great Plains, and upper Midwest for the next
few days...

...Above average temperatures throughout the northern half of the Nation
but cooler than average across the southern tier...

A stagnant and sluggish upper-level pattern will continue across the U.S.
mainland.  Upper-level troughs/lows will tend to slide across the
Southwest and the Southeast while a blocking ridge will remain in place
across the Northeast, leading to a north-south thermal reversal with
generally above normal temperatures across the north but cooler than
normal across the south for the next few days.  Cloudy and damp weather
associated with the low pressure system that had moved onshore and
weakened over the Mid-Atlantic states will be blocked by the
aforementioned upper ridge in the Northeast.  The low center will be slow
to exit the Mid-Atlantic region the next couple of days as it wanders in
North Carolina today before drifting to the east and off the Mid-Atlantic
coast later on Tuesday.  Some moderate rainfall with a risk of flooding is
expected across the central Appalachians and the eastern upslope region
this morning as the surface low over North Carolina interacts with an
upper low moving into the southeastern U.S.  A slow tapering off of the
rain is forecast for the next couple of days with only some drizzle
remaining by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, the most active weather will continue to be found across much
of the Intermountain West, into the northern and central Rockies and
farther out into the Plains.  Troughing over the West will support
additional thunderstorm activity while impulses ejecting out of the
Rockies will trigger additional clusters of thunderstorms mainly over the
northern and central High Plains today, northern Plains on Tuesday, and
back into the central High Plains on Wednesday.  But other areas up and
down the Great Plains will have a chance of seeing these thunderstorms
under a corridor of southerly surface winds, bringing continuous flow of
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.  For northern California and the
central/northern Great Basin, scattered showers and thunderstorms could
occur over regions with swollen rivers and high stream flows due to
snowmelt, as well as sensitive terrain associated with burn scars.

The temperature outlook for the Nation will feature most locations
experiencing high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through Tuesday. This
equates to above average temperatures throughout the northern half of the
country and below average across the southern tier.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php