Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Valid 12Z Wed May 31 2023 - 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023

...Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large
portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin...

...Watching the potential for low pressure to develop in the eastern Gulf
and bring increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida next
few days...

...Much above average temperatures along the northern tier of the nation
but cooler than normal across the southern tier and along the West and
East Coasts...

A blocky weather pattern continues across the mainland U.S. as we end the
month of May and head into June.  This pattern continues to present itself
with upper troughing across the western U.S. leading to widespread
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central U.S., the
northern Rockies and northern Great Basin/Intermountain region. 
Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another
trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an
upper-level closed high over northeastern U.S. which is forecast to expand
to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days.  This
pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the 
surface, with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier 
states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the 
southern tier and along the West and East Coasts.  By Friday, the
Northeast is forecast to be very warm with high temperatures challenging
daily records under the expanding upper High.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be most active during
the afternoon into the evening hours today and into Thursday from northern
California through the northern Rockies where a marginal risk of flash
flooding is anticipated.  Later on Thursday into early Friday, expect
an increasing chance for heavy rain/showers to be more focused across the 
northern High Plains with a slight risk of flash flooding.  Meanwhile, 
strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely across the central to 
southern High Plains through the next couple of days as upper-level 
impulses from the western U.S. mean trough eject into the Great Plains.

Across the Mid-Atlantic, a lingering upper low with a stationary front at
the surface will continue to push cooler air down from New England to the
East Coast and Appalachians.  There remains the chance for some light
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spin back onshore into the
Mid-Atlantic during the next couple of days.  To the south, an upper-level
trough settling over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to spawn a new
low-pressure system at the surface.  This system is currently being
monitored by the National Hurricane Center.  The exact track of this
system remains uncertain, but showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
system are expected to become increasingly active over the Florida
Peninsula through the next few days.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php