Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 01 2023 - 00Z Sat Jun 03 2023

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for isolated
flash flooding and severe weather continue from the Plains to
Intermountain West...

...Area of low pressure in the Gulf to bring increasing chance of
thunderstorms to Florida the next few days...

...Much above average, record tying/breaking warmth from the Northeast to
the Great Lakes to end the week...

A blocky weather pattern continues across the CONUS heading into June.
Upper troughing remains present across the western U.S. leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central/western U.S. 
Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another
trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an
upper-level closed high over the northeastern U.S., which is forecast to
expand to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. 
This pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the
surface, with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier
states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the southern
tier and along the West and East Coasts.

Upper-level energy circling the western trough and associated surface
frontal systems will continue to trigger scattered storms from the Plains
into the Rockies and Great Basin the next couple of days. Very moist,
southeasterly flow along the High Plains and into the Rockies will help
contribute to bouts of heavy rain and the potential for isolated instances
of flash flooding. Two focus areas will be over portions of the Southern
Plains and and Northern High Plains/Rockies where Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect both Thursday and Friday. The
potential for more widespread, organized clusters of storms over more
saturated soils given the stagnant pattern and repeated rounds of storms
will locally increase the risk for flash flooding. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Southern High Plains
with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather the next couple of days
as stronger winds aloft due to a passing upper-level wave will raise the
chance of a few more organized, supercell storms capable of producing
primarily large hail and gusty winds. High temperatures through Friday
will be around average for northern portions of the West, with 70s and 80s
forecast. Highs will be much below average along the California Coast,
with mostly 60s expected, as well as into the Southwest with 80s to low
90s forecast.

An organizing area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
central and southern Florida Peninsula the next couple of days. While the
National Hurricane Center has kept the chance of any tropical development
low, very heavy downpours will still be possible with an isolated risk of
flash flooding. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday will generally be
cooler than average for much of the Southeast with upper-level troughing
in place as highs remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Conditions will be a
bit warmer north and west into the Tennessee/Ohio/Mississippi Valleys
between the southeastern and western troughs, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s. 

High temperatures will continue to trend 15-25 degrees above average from
the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Northern Plains as upper-level
ridging hovers over the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s,
which may come close to tying/breaking a few daily records both Thursday
and Friday. A cold front pushing southward from Canada into potions of New
England later Friday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
also cooler temperatures.

Putnam/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php