Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 01 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 03 2023

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for isolated
flash flooding and severe weather continue from the Plains to
Intermountain West...

...Area of low pressure in the Gulf to bring increasing chance of
thunderstorms to Florida the next few days...

...Much above average, record tying/breaking warmth from the Northeast to
the Great Lakes to end the week...

A blocky weather pattern continues across the CONUS heading into June.
Upper troughing remains present across the western U.S. leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central/western U.S. 
Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another
trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an
upper-level closed high over the northeastern U.S., which is forecast to
expand to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. 
This pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature reversal at the
surface, with much above normal temperatures across the northern tier
states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across the southern
tier and along the West and East Coasts.

A couple of upper-level troughs/lows moving into/across the western U.S.
will focus two main areas of moderate to heavy rainfall as we head into
the first weekend of June.  An upper low currently crossing the Southwest
will help destabilize the atmosphere over the very moist, southeasterly
low-level flow over the southern High Plains for the next couple of days. 
The highest chance of seeing heavy rain and severe weather will be across
the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.  A few more organized,
supercell storms could produce large hail and gusty winds together with
heavy rain capable of triggering flash flooding today and again on Friday
with activities most active during the late afternoon into the evening
hours.  Meanwhile, an upper-level trough edging into the Pacific Northwest
will focus a second area of moderate to heavy rainfall across central
Montana where a couple of fronts are forecast to interact with a surface
low pressure system.

Over the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch
a developing low pressure system for signs of tropical cyclone
development.  Models generally agree that the core of the system will stay
at a distance off to the west of Florida through Saturday morning. 
Regardless of tropical development, this system will likely bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
central and southern Florida Peninsula. 

High temperatures will continue to trend 15-25 degrees above average from
the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Northern Plains as upper-level
ridging hovers over the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s,
which may come close to tying/breaking a few daily records both Thursday
and Friday.  A back-door cold front will then push southward from Canada
into New England later on Friday, bringing a surge of cool and damp air
into the region along with an expanding area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms across New York and central New England into Saturday
morning.  Above normal conditions will extend south into the
Tennessee/Ohio/Mississippi Valleys between the southeastern and western
troughs, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Across the West, high
temperatures through Friday will be around average for northern portions
of the Pacific Northwest, with forecast highs in the 70s and 80s.  Highs
will be much below average along the California Coast, with mostly 60s
expected, as well as into the Southwest with 80s to low 90s forecast.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php