Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 02 2023 - 00Z Sun Jun 04 2023

...Heavy rain to likely lead to additional instances of flash flooding
across the Texas Panhandle on Friday, as well as the possibility of severe
thunderstorms...

...Increasing threat of excessive rainfall across parts of north-central
Montana to end the week...

...Much above average temperatures throughout the Northeast on Friday
ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front to swing through the region by
Saturday...

Upper-level troughing over the western U.S. will continue to support
active weather from the Great Plains to the Intermountain West over at
least the next few days, with increasing chances for areas of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Ongoing scattered thunderstorms are expected
to continue throughout the region tonight, further saturating terrain
ahead of potentially more impactful rainfall on Friday. Starting in the
southern High Plains, a shortwave trough entering the southern Rockies by
Friday morning and exiting from above the subtropical eastern Pacific will
aid in sparking numerous thunderstorms to the east of a New Mexico/West
Texas dry line. Intense rainfall rates are expected to accompany the
developing clusters of thunderstorms, while tracking over much of the
already saturated Texas Panhandle. This part of the country has received
well above average precipitation over the last 30 days, as much as 600%
above normal, which leads to highly susceptible soils unable to contain
additional heavy rain. Flood Watches remain in effect across the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles, as well as northeast New Mexico. Additionally,
severe weather is possible from the Texas Panhandle to the Permian Basin
of western Texas. Some storms in these areas could produce very large
hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes. Scattered areas of
showers and thunderstorms may continue to impact the southern Plains into
the start of the weekend, but should become much more isolated when
compared to the activity on Friday.

Farther north throughout the central and northern High Plains, a separate
system within the elongated western U.S. upper-level trough will focus
areas of scattered thunderstorms throughout much of Wyoming and central
Montana. A nearby frontal boundary will help focus a corridor of heavy
rain across central and north-central Montana, creating an environment
ripe for slow-moving and training thunderstorms. Where several inches of
rainfall occurs, numerous instances of flash flooding are possible. Flood
Watches are in effect from central Montana to western Nebraska. Residents
and visitors are advised to heed any warnings and never drive through
flooded roadways.

Elsewhere, scattered instances of heavy rain are possible across both the
Northeast and Southeast through this weekend. For the Southeast, much of
the thunderstorm activity will be associated with a strung-out upper-level
trough extending from the eastern Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
as well as a weak upper-level low over the Gulf. Underneath this upper
low, a developing surface low may focus shower and thunderstorm activity
across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Localized heavy rainfall is
possible each day through this weekend, with the heavy rainfall threat
gradually shifting south and confining to the Gold Coast of southeast
Florida by Saturday. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible. For the Northeast, a backdoor cold front entering the region on
Friday will spark scattered thunderstorms capable of containing intense
downpours over New England. This cold front will eventually progress
through the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and offer a relief from what is
expected to be an early taste of summer.

Speaking of summer, these well above average and potentially
record-breaking temperatures are expected to peak across the Northeast and
Great Lakes on Friday. Highs into upper 80s and low 90s will equate to
10-20 degrees above average when compared to climatology. Some daily high
temperature records could also be at risk throughout the region. The
early-summer warmth is forecast to remain across the Great Lakes, Midwest,
and northern Plains through the weekend, while the East Coast cools down
substantially thanks to easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php