Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023 - 12Z Sun Jun 04 2023

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains and a second area over parts of the Northern
Rockies/High Plains...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Saturday...

A broad unorganized upper-level low over the Rockies will have multiple
upper-level impulses rotating over the Rockies through Sunday morning. The
upper-level energy will draw moisture northward over the Plains into the
High Plains. The associated showers and thunderstorms will create heavy
rain over parts of the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains
on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition, a second area of showers
and thunderstorms will develop parts of Central Montana. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Friday into Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding.
Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Moreover, the heavy rain over the Southern High Plains will be accompanied
by showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains from
Friday into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or
greater over parts of the Southern High Plains.

On Saturday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly over the
Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the threat of severe
thunderstorms decreases to a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms on
Saturday over parts of the Southern High Plains.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving southward over New England will
trigger showers and thunderstorms over the region on Friday into Saturday
morning. Additionally, tropical moisture over Florida will create showers
and thunderstorms over the state through Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php