Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 03 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 05 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains and a second area over parts of the Northern Rockies/High
Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Sunday...

...Tropical Storm Arlene over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will move
southeastward towards Cuba...

A broad unorganized upper-level low over the Rockies will slowly weaken by
Monday morning. In contrast, an upper-level ridge over the Upper Midwest
and South-Central Canada will slowly move westward to the Northern Plains.
The upper-level energy will draw moisture northward over the Southern
Plains and the upper-level high will steer the moisture into the High
Plains. The moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms, creating
heavy rain over parts of the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High
Plains on Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. In addition, a second area of
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Montana and Wyoming.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Saturday into Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Furthermore, weak upper-level energy extending from the Great Lakes to the
Central Appalachians will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic during the
late afternoon Saturday into late Saturday night.

On Sunday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues as showers and
thunderstorms develop over Northwestern Texas. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern High
Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the showers and
thunderstorms continue over parts of the Northern Rockies, creating light
to moderate rain over the area.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving southward over New England will
trigger rain showers over the region through Monday morning. Additionally,
tropical moisture over Florida will create showers and thunderstorms over
the state through Monday. Further, Tropical Storm Arlene over the Eastern
Gulf of Mexico will move southeastward towards Cuba and dissipate by
Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php