Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 04 2023 - 00Z Tue Jun 06 2023

...Unsettled weather to continue through the weekend across much of the
High Plains and into the Central/Northern Rockies with locally heavy
rainfall...

...Hot temperatures to continue across the Northern Plains and much of the
Midwest...

...Much colder weather with much below normal temperatures expected across
the Northeast...

A broad area of unsettled weather will continue through the weekend across
many areas of the High Plains and through the central and northern Rockies
as a large upper-level trough persists over the region. Scattered areas of
showers and thunderstorms are expected, and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall across areas of northern Wyoming through
central Montana, and also separately for areas of the Texas Panhandle,
western Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas going through tonight where
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected. Isolated to locally
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible across these areas.
On Sunday, the excessive rainfall threat will taper down a bit across the
northern High Plains, but will continue for areas of the southern High
Plains with a focus on the Texas Panhandle. The severe weather threat will
overall be quite isolated this weekend, but the Storm Prediction Center
does depict a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across the Lower Rio
Grande Valley in south Texas through this evening where some storms may
produce large hail and damaging winds.

Elsewhere, a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest will keep many of these areas rather hot with
high temperatures in the upper 80s to the low 90s which will be as much as
10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. A few widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. By Monday, a cold
front advancing south from Canada will begin to help cool off areas of the
Upper Midwest and through the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the Northeast
U.S. will see quite the opposite weather pattern for the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week as a strong upper-level low drops south
from areas of southeast Canada and down through New England. This will
bring much colder air down along with it, with temperatures forecast to be
well below normal. Some high temperatures will stay in the 50s the next
couple of days and be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. The colder
temperatures will be amplified in part by cloud cover and areas of rain,
especially along the New England coast, as low pressure strengthens
offshore over the next couple of days.

The weather across the remainder of the country for the next couple of
days will be rather tranquil although cooler temperatures will tend to
filter south down across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast as
northeast winds advance down the coast behind a cold front. Some scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected from the central Appalachians
down through the Tennessee Valley and the central and western Gulf Coast
region. Along the West Coast, generally dry weather is expected, although
some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible by early next
week over the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures will also be warming well above
normal across areas of the Pacific Northwest, with near to locally below
normal temperatures expected for the Southwest.

Orrison

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php