Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 05 2023 - 00Z Wed Jun 07 2023

...Areas of heavy rain and flash flooding possible across the southern
High Plains over the next few days...

...Above average temperatures remain throughout the northern Plains and
build into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday...


A continuing stagnant upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over North
America the next couple of days, with upper-level lows deepening by
Tuesday near the Northeast and Southwest, providing a focus for areas of
unsettled weather. Instances of flash flooding remain a notable weather
hazard throughout the southern High Plains each day into the beginning of
this week. Recent rainfall has overly saturated ground conditions and left
much of northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle highly susceptible to
renewed flash flooding. Additionally, burn scars throughout the higher
terrain of New Mexico are also sensitive to intense rainfall rates leading
to rapid runoff. To further highlight the flooding concerns, a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through early Monday
morning from western Oklahoma to northeast New Mexico, including the Texas
Panhandle. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall continues across northeast
New Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also expected throughout the remaining of the High
Plains, southern Plains, Rockies, and northern Great Basin. Some storms in
these regions may also produce intense downpours and lead to localized
flash flooding.

A strengthening low pressure system off the coast of New England will
provide cool temperatures and numerous showers the next few days as it
very slowly pushes northward into Nova Scotia. To its west, a sinking cold
front entering the Great Lakes and northern Plains may spark scattered
showers and storms throughout the region, while also offering relief from
the well above average temperatures. Cooler air is forecast to remain
along the East Coast and Northeast while impacted by consistent northerly
flow, which may allow for skies to become opaque as far west as the Ohio
Valley due to expansive wildfires in Quebec, Canada.

Outside of typical summertime impulse thunderstorms throughout the Deep
South and central U.S., the other weather story of note involves well
above average temperatures building into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday
as upper-level ridging squeezes westward to the north of a closed
upper-level low over the Southwest. Highs into the upper 80s and low 90s
are expected for this region.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php