Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 09 2023 - 00Z Sun Jun 11 2023

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding over parts of the Northern Rockies/Plains tonight...

...Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...

...Temperatures will be below average over parts of California/Southwest
and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...

Shortwave energy moving through the Intermountain West will generate
thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies/Plains tonight. There's a
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding as well as
Flash Flood Watches, due to the development of MCS capable of producing
2"/hr rainfall rates and very sensitive soils across portions of Idaho and
Montana. Shortwaves embedded within the central North American ridge will
continue to produce thunderstorms and excessive rainfall from the Northern
Great Basin/Rockies down through the Great Plains through this weekend.
There are Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms in effect for parts of
coastal Texas tonight, where large hail and isolated damaging winds will
be the main threat, then eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Friday,
where severe outflow gusts are possible.

Anomalous ridging over central North America has been generating very warm
temperatures and dry conditions over much of Canada over the past several
days. This has lead to the development of many major wildfires across the
country. An area of upper low pressure has and will continue to direct the
smoke from the wildfires in Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia down into
parts of the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
Wildfire smoke at the levels forecast is dangerous, especially to those
with respiratory sensitivities and elderly/young people so limiting
outdoor exposure time is important while the current Air Quality Alerts
are in effect. Some reprieve is likely by early next week when a cold
front may sweep through the eastern half of the country.

High temperatures will be below average across California and the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic through Saturday due to the dipoles of upper lows
spinning over the respective regions during that time. Highs in the 60s
and low 70s will be 10-20 degrees below average for many places, but won't
be cool enough to rival much if any records. Above average temperatures
persist across the Great Plains, due to the presence of the upper ridge
through Saturday.


Kebede



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php