Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 10 2023 - 00Z Mon Jun 12 2023

...Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding likely across Northern Great
Basin/Plains/Rockies tonight; Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this
weekend...

...Severe weather expected from Central/Southern Plains to Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley this weekend...

...Air Quality Alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke remain in effect over
parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...

Shortwave energy stalled out over the Northern Plains will continue to
generate thunderstorms with embedded heavy rainfall across the Northern
Rockies/Plains through Saturday. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of eastern Montana
tonight due to the potential for high rainfall rates over very saturated
soils. Meanwhile, severe thunderstorms will probably develop along a
shortwave and surface dryline over the Central/Southern Plains tonight. A
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of southeast
Colorado, southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle due to the
possibility of large hail and severe outflow gusts. Upper-level energy
over the Pacific Northwest will support a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall over portions of eastern Oregon and western Idaho, where high
rain rates and low flash flood guidance can lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

The threat for flash flooding shifts into the Great Plains and Mississippi
Valley on Saturday, due, in part, to the southward progression of a cold
front through the midsection of the country. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall are in effect for parts of these areas, where high rain rates and
a very unstable environment may combine to produce flash flooding.
Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across parts
of the Southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Saturday. Thus an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for
these areas. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be the primary
threats with some potential for very large hail, severe gusts and a
tornado or two across parts of north and central Texas. The flash flooding
and severe thunderstorm threat shift into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday
where Slight Risks of both are in effect.

An expanding upper-level low over the Southwest will pump cool Pacific air
into the region this weekend. High temperatures might be low enough on
Sunday to tie or break records over parts of southern California, where
temps will be in the low to mid-60s. Air quality alerts are still in
effect despite an improvement over much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and
Ohio Valley today. This trend should continue through the weekend before a
thorough clearance of Canadian wildfire smoke with the arrival of a cold
front early next week.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php