Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 11 2023 - 00Z Tue Jun 13 2023

...Severe thunderstorms expected across parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight...

...Locally heavy rainfall and some potential for flash flooding will shift
over into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys on Sunday, but will also still be a
concern for the central High Plains...

...Triple digit heat builds into much of Texas over the next few days...

An active summer weather pattern is expected to continue into the new week
ahead, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
nation. Portions of the southern Plains in particular will see a notable
threat of severe weather heading through the evening and overnight hours
with a focus on central and eastern Texas through adjacent areas of the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be driven by energy associated with an
upper-level trough interacting with a frontal zone and the pooling of very
moist and unstable air from the western Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for this region through early
Sunday morning. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall rates, and
produce concerns for scattered instances flash flooding. The Weather
Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive
rainfall across areas of eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex through tonight.

Elsewhere, a developing low pressure system over the central Plains will
advance east into the Ohio Valley on Sunday as a trailing cold front
settles southward. This will drive a fairly widespread threat of heavy
showers and thunderstorms for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Some
pockets of severe weather will be possible and the Storm Prediction Center
does have a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms depicted for
portions of the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South. A couple inches of
rain is expected locally, and there may be some isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding where some of the stronger
thunderstorms materialize. Areas of the Mid-South will tend to see the
greatest threat of any flash flooding and the Weather Prediction Center
does have a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive rainfall depicted over
this region for Sunday into early Monday. Overall, the rainfall across
much of the region should be beneficial and especially over the Ohio
Valley where many areas have been abnormally dry and are locally in a
moderate drought.

This low pressure system will move into the lower Great Lakes region on
Monday and drive a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms can be expected followed by
somewhat cooler temperatures in behind the front. The rainfall will be
highly beneficial for most areas given the very dry spring that has
unfolded this season.

Meanwhile, wet and unsettled weather is expected to continue across many
areas of the central High Plains and parts of the Intermountain West as a
front will remain in the vicinity through the weekend which coupled with
the arrival of new upper-level energy should produce additional rounds of
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some additional areas of flash
flooding will be possible and the Weather Prediction Center once again has
highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive rainfall across
portions of the High Plains.

The temperature outlook across the Lower 48 through Monday consists of
sustained cooler temperatures over the Southwest, as well as over the
Great Lakes and central High Plains by Sunday into next week. Meanwhile,
triple-digit heat is expected to build into the Lone Star State through
the weekend, with well above average temperatures also found throughout
the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level pattern responsible for these
daytime temperatures consist of upper-level lows over the Southwest and
Great Lakes, with ridging over the south-central and northwestern United
States. Widespread highs into the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast
across central/southern Texas through Monday, with heat indices nearing
110 degrees across far southern sections of the state. Residents are
advised to take early-season heat seriously and follow proper heat safety
tips.

Snell/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php