Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 11 2023 - 12Z Tue Jun 13 2023

...Severe thunderstorms expected across parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Tennessee Valley today...

...Locally heavy rainfall and some potential for flash flooding forecast
over the central High Plains through Monday, as well as across the
Southeast today and Mid-South early this week...

...Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat builds into much of
Texas over the next few days...

A strengthening low pressure system progressing from the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes by early this week combined with
attached frontal boundaries stretching from the East Coast to the
Intermountain West are anticipated to spark numerous clusters of
thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. Several thunderstorms developing
ahead of an associated cold front between the Lower Mississippi Valley to
the Tennessee Valley today are expected to turn severe, potentially
producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a broad Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe
thunderstorms from northeast Arkansas to the far southern Appalachians.
Additionally, locally heavy rain may accompany the relatively fast-moving
storms and create scattered flash flooding concerns over portions of
northern Georgia and nearby adjacent states. Heavy rain is also possible
throughout the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into this evening, but these
regions have been very dry as of late and would largely benefit from a few
inches of rainfall. As the aforementioned low pressure system pushes into
the Lower Great Lakes on Monday and the attached cold front swings through
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, locally heavy rain is expected along a
line of storms extending from south-central New York to eastern
Pennsylvania. Similar to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, this region has
been starved of beneficial rainfall the last several weeks, so most
rainfall will be beneficial, but could come down heavy enough at times to
lead to small stream and localized urban flash flooding.

Farther west near a quasi-stationary front extending from the southern
Plains to the central Rockies, scattered thunderstorms may turn severe and
create a flash flooding threat over the central High Plains both today and
Monday. Strong storms developing along the Colorado Front Range and
gradually progressing east-southeast will have the potential to contain
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Heavy rainfall associated with slower
moving storms could create flash flooding over eastern Colorado, where
soils remain saturated due to a wet spring. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for eastern Colorado today and Monday,
with the threat extending into southwest Kansas on Monday. Heavy rainfall
will also be a concern from the Red River Valley of the South to the
Mid-South early this week as the previously mentioned frontal boundary
gradually lifts back north and ushers in moist air from the Gulf of
Mexico. With ample atmospheric moisture content and a frontal boundary to
focus thunderstorms, scattered flash floods and severe thunderstorms will
be a concern from southeast Oklahoma to central Alabama.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low churning over the Southwest and eventually
the Intermountain West by Monday will offer daily chances for scattered
thunderstorms and heavy rain between the higher elevations of California
and the northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly winds combined with low
relative humidity has also prompted a Critical Wildfire Risk from
southeast Arizona to southwestern Texas through Monday. Red Flag Warnings
are in effect over parts of south-central New Mexico in order to further
highlight the concern.

Temperatures over the Lower 48 through Tuesday are expected to feature
building heat across the Lone Star State. Highs into the upper-90s and
triple digits for most of Texas are forecast over the next several days,
with heat indices nearing 110 degrees across southern sections of the
state. Daily high temperature records could be threatened on Tuesday for
places such as Austin and San Antonio. Residents are advised to take this
early summer heat seriously and follow proper heat safety. Above average
temperatures are also anticipated over the Mid-Atlantic today ahead of the
approaching storm system, with highs possibly reaching into the low 90s.
Low 90s are also forecast to enter the opposite side of the Nation
throughout the Pacific Northwest by Monday, equating to around 20 degrees
above average when compared to local climatology. Meanwhile, sustained
below average temperatures are forecast beneath upper-level lows over the
Southwest and Great Lakes, with cooler weather also expected over the
central High Plains due to wet weather and cloudy conditions.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php