Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 13 2023 - 00Z Thu Jun 15 2023

...Severe thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
possible across southern tier...

...Severe thunderstorms possible along parts of the Northeast coast and
flash flooding potential over parts of the Central Plains tonight...

...Above average temperatures for the northern tier; Critical fire weather
for Southern Plains and Southwest...

A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for thunderstorm development
and impacts from Texas to the Carolinas over the next few days. The
western flank of the surface boundary will continue to drive convection
across parts of central/eastern Colorado this evening with some chance for
some isolated instances of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms capable
of producing large hail. The most favorable area for severe storms will be
over portions of central Texas, where an Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect. Very large/damaging hail are possible.
Damaging winds and/or large hail will also be possible from the Southern
Plains to the Mid-Atlantic tonight where Slight Risks are currently in
effect.

Attention shifts to the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaTex on
Tuesday and Wednesday, where thunderstorms capable of producing severe
weather and flash flooding are possible. Slight Risks of Severe
Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall are in effect from eastern Texas to
the Southeast Coast. Thunderstorms capable of generating large hail and
damaging winds are expected along the boundary, while repeated rounds of
storms over saturated soils could lead to flash flooding. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected over portions of the Northern/Central
Plains/Rockies over the next couple of days.

An amplifying trough over the Northwest and continued ridging over the
central CONUS/Canada will support above average temperatures across the
northern tier of the U.S. on Tuesday before a cold front moderates
temperatures in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Above average to
record breaking temperatures are possible over portions of central and
southern Texas on Tuesday. The warm temps continue and amplify over Texas
through the rest of the work week. Cloudy, convective weather across
portions of the Central/Southern Plains will contribute to below average
temperatures over the next couple of days. Very dry and gusty conditions
over portions of southeastern Arizona into western Texas will support a
Critical Risk of Fires through Tuesday.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php