Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 13 2023 - 12Z Thu Jun 15 2023

...Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat located across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over the next few days...

...Locally heavy rain possible within scattered thunderstorms throughout
the Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today...

...Triple digit heat to expand throughout most of Texas by the end of the
week...

A lingering frontal boundary stretching from the Southeast to the southern
Plains will provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms across
the region through midweek, with chances for both severe weather and flash
flooding. Ample moisture from the nearby Gulf of Mexico will allow for
thunderstorms to contain intense rainfall rates, with the potential for
storms to overlap and produce locally heavy rainfall totals. Scattered
flash flooding is possible between the ArkLaTex region and southeast
Georgia today, with the threat gradually confining eastward toward the
Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Over this 3-day period a swath of 3
to 5 inches of rainfall is forecast between southern Arkansas and southern
Georgia, with locally higher amounts possible. Additionally, plentiful
instability in place will allow for strengthening thunderstorms to develop
very strong updrafts, which may produce large hail and damaging wind
gusts. A greater chance for severe weather exists on Wednesday between the
ArkLaMiss and southeast Georgia, where the Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms.

Scattered thunderstorms will once again remain likely throughout the
Sierra Nevada, Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today
within weak upper-level flow. A few storms could contain heavy rainfall
rates, which may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns, especially
across sensitive terrain. The central High Plains in particular have been
very wet as of late and have sols unable to contain additional downpours,
which may locally increase the threat of flooding depending on where heavy
rain occurs. A strong cold front and sharp upper-level trough are forecast
to enter the Northwest by this evening before shifting into the northern
Plains on Wednesday. This system will act to shift shower/thunderstorm
activity farther east into the northern and central Plains on Thursday.
Farther east, a slow-moving upper-level low over the Great Lakes will
produce scattered shower activity across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Ohio Valley over the next few days. With the recent extended dry spell
over this part of the country, any additional rainfall will likely be seen
as beneficial.

For much of Texas, oppressive heat and humidity will make for several
uncomfortable afternoons and evenings outdoors. Outside of the Texas
Panhandle, highs are expected to reach into the upper 90s and low 100s
over at least the next few days. Heat indices throughout southern Texas
are expected to reach into the 110s. The triple digit heat is also
forecast to expand slightly northward by Thursday into parts of
north-central Texas. While summer heat is not atypical throughout the Lone
Star State, the upcoming hot weather will have the potential to break a
few daily high temperature records. Residents are advised to follow proper
heat safety tips by staying hydrated and limiting time outdoors during the
peak daytime heating hours.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php