Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 14 2023 - 00Z Fri Jun 16 2023

...Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat located across the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast over the next few
days...

...Locally heavy rain possible within scattered thunderstorms throughout
the Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today...

...Triple digit heat to expand throughout most of Texas by the end of the
week; Critical fire weather today across southern New Mexico...

A well-defined dryline and a lingering frontal boundary stretching across
the Southern Plains into the Southeast continues to focus thunderstorm
activity across the region, with daily chances of both severe weather and
flash flooding expected over the next three days. Ample moisture in place
from the nearby Gulf of Mexico will allow for thunderstorms to contain
intense rainfall rates, with the potential for storms to overlap and
produce locally heavy rainfall totals. Scattered flash flooding is
possible between the ArkLaTex region and southeast Georgia today, with the
greatest threat of flash floods gradually focusing eastward atop the
Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Through the end of the work week, the
forecast for 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over the next three days remains on
track across southern Arkansas into southern Georgia, with locally higher
amounts possible. Rainfall rates aside, the ample Gulf of Mexico moisture
within the warm sector of the front will also support an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms today over northeast Texas (which
includes the DFW metro) primarily for large hail and damaging winds.
Another Enhanced Risk for severe weather exists on Wednesday between the
ArkLaMiss and southeast Georgia, where very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are all possible.

Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will once again remain likely
throughout the Sierra Nevada, Intermountain West, Rockies, and central
High Plains today within weak upper-level flow. A few storms could contain
heavy rainfall rates given anomalous moisture available overhead, which
may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns, especially across sensitive
terrain including burn scars. The central High Plains in particular have
been very wet as of late, which may locally increase the threat of
flooding depending on where heavy rain occurs, where a Slight Risk (level
(2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect today. Further west, a strong
cold front and sharp upper-level trough are forecast to enter the
Northwest by this evening before shifting into the Northern Plains on
Wednesday. This system will act to shift shower/thunderstorm activity
farther east into the Northern and Central Plains on Thursday which could
yield some isolated instances of flash flooding. A slow-moving upper-level
low over the Great Lakes will also maintain scattered shower activity
across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley over the next few days.
However, this additional rainfall will likely be seen as beneficial given
the extended dry spell over this region.

For much of Texas, oppressive heat and humidity will make for several
uncomfortable afternoons and evenings outdoors. Outside of the Texas
Panhandle, highs are expected to reach into the upper 90s and low 100s
over at least the next few days. Heat indices throughout southern Texas
are expected to reach into the 110s. The triple digit heat is also
forecast to expand slightly northward by Thursday into parts of
north-central Texas. While summer heat is not atypical throughout the Lone
Star State, the upcoming hot weather will have the potential to break a
few daily high temperature records toward the end of the work week.
Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by staying
hydrated and limiting time outdoors during the peak daytime heating hours.
In contrast to the oppressive humidity over Texas, critical fire weather
conditions (level 2/3) are expected today across southern New Mexico west
of the dryline given warm temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds.
Fire weather chances are forecast to improve tomorrow, although an
Elevated (level 1/3) risk of fire weather conditions remains across
southern New Mexico and far southeast Arizona.

Asherman/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php