Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 14 2023 - 12Z Fri Jun 16 2023

...Significant severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast today...

...Unsettled and cool weather forecast across the Northeast, Great Basin,
and Rockies through the end of the week...

...Record-breaking and oppressive heat anticipated to expand throughout
much of Texas...

Numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected to impact much of the
Deep South today between the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast as
storms develop near a lingering stationary boundary and race
east-southeastward. Ingredients in place for intense thunderstorms to
develop include plentiful atmospheric moisture content entering from the
Gulf of Mexico, strong westerly wind shear, and ample instability.
Thunderstorms will be capable of containing very large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and tornadoes. Out of the multiple severe weather hazards, swaths
of strong wind gusts are the most likely threat stretching from northeast
Louisiana to southwest Georgia. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe weather across this region.
Additionally, clusters of thunderstorms are likely to contain heavy
rainfall. Storms that overlap similar areas could create flash flooding
concerns from central Alabama to southern Georgia, particularly near urban
corridors and low-lying regions. The active weather pattern is expected to
linger into Thursday across the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast States,
with more chances for scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.
Residents and visitors throughout the affected regions should have
multiple ways to receive weather warnings and have a plan should severe
weather approach.

An upper-level low over the Great Lakes pushing eastward followed by a
reinforcing upper-level trough over the Northeast on Friday will allow for
continued below average temperatures and shower chances for the next few
days. Much of the rainfall is expected to be light to locally moderate at
times and will be seen as mostly beneficial given the anomalously dry May
and first half of June. However, a few isolated storms could turn severe
from northern New Jersey to southern New England today. Farther west,
initial broad weak upper-level flow over the Great Basin will allow for
another day of slow-moving thunderstorms from the Sierra Nevada to the
central Rockies. A strong cold front progressing through the Northern
Rockies will begin to focus moisture northward into the northern Plains by
this evening and spread shower/thunderstorm chances into much of the Great
Plains by the end of the week. Any severe weather associated with this
system is expected to occur between the central Plains on Thursday and
lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Intense rainfall rates may also
produce a localized risk for flash flooding throughout much of the central
United States.

Summer heat is forecast to soar throughout the Lone Star State into the
end of the week and beyond, with only the Texas Panhandle omitted from
triple digit high temperatures. When combined with oppressive humidity,
particularly across South Texas and the western Gulf Coast, heat indices
could reach as high as 120 degrees. These temperatures can be very
dangerous if spending extended time outdoors or in areas without proper
air conditioning. Over the next few days, the anomalous heat is expected
to expand gradually into more of western and north-central Texas, while
also threatening some daily high temperature records. Residents are
advised to follow proper heat safety and heed warnings from local
officials. Additionally, the warm temperatures when combined with gusty
winds and low relative humidity will create Critical Fire Weather across
southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and West Texas.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php