Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 15 2023 - 00Z Sat Jun 17 2023

...Active stretch of heavy rain with the risk for flash flooding and
severe weather continues for the Southeast, Plains, and Rockies...

...Record-breaking and oppressive heat for portions of Texas and South
Florida...

...Unsettled and cool weather forecast across the Northeast; tranquil,
near-average conditions for the West Coast...

An active stretch of heavy rain with the potential for multiple areas of
flash flooding as well as Spring-like severe weather will continue over
the next couple of days, stretching from the Southeast and Plains into the
Rockies. Energetic westerly southern-stream flow over a quasi-stationary
front lingering across a very moist airmass settled in the Southern Plains
and Southeast will provide the trigger and fuel for organized,
strong-to-severe thunderstorms. One area of focus for heavy rainfall on
Thursday will be for portions of southern Alabama and Georgia where a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The
combination of clustering, organized storms focusing along the boundary
and deep moisture contributing to heavy downpours may lead to some
scattered instances of flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted the region for a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms with hail, gusty winds, and a few tornadoes all possible.
Another focus for severe thunderstorms will be over the Central/Southern
Plains. A broad Slight Risk is in effect as very strong CAPE values and
the westerly flow aloft contributing to more than sufficient shear for
June standards is expected to lead to the risk of very large hail, strong
winds, and several tornadoes, with the potential for some significant
instances of each threat. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible
downstream of the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. Farther
west, broad, weak upper-level flow over the Intermountain West along with
a cold front passing through the region will lead to slow-moving
thunderstorms from the Great Basin into the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains the next couple of days. High available moisture content in
the region as well as moisture pooling along the boundary will lead to yet
another focus area for heavy-rain producing thunderstorms and the risk of
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall are in effect for portions of the Central Rockies
Thursday and into the central High Plains on Friday.

To the south of the active weather, Summer-like heat is forecast to soar
throughout the Lone Star State into the end of the week and beyond, with
only the Texas Panhandle omitted from triple digit high temperatures. When
combined with oppressive humidity, particularly across South Texas and the
western Gulf Coast, heat indices could reach as high as 120 degrees. These
temperatures can be very dangerous if spending extended time outdoors or
in areas without proper air conditioning. Over the next few days, the
anomalous heat is expected to expand gradually into more of western and
north-central Texas, while also threatening some daily high temperature
records. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety and heed
warnings from local officials. Additionally, the warm temperatures when
combined with gusty winds and low relative humidity have prompted a
Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center across
portions of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and West Texas
Thursday and Friday, with the threat also forecast to continue into the
weekend. Potentially record-tying/breaking high temperatures in the
mid-90s are also forecast for South Florida Thursday and Friday.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low over the Great Lakes pushing eastward
followed by a reinforcing upper-level trough over the Northeast on Friday
will allow for continued below average temperatures and shower chances for
the next few days. Much of the rainfall is expected to be light to locally
moderate at times and will be seen as mostly beneficial given the
anomalously dry May and first half of June. Weak southern-stream troughing
over portions of California and the Desert Southwest will keep
temperatures a bit below average, with mostly 90s in the deserts and 60s
to low 70s along the coast. Conditions will be around average and tranquil
over the Pacific Northwest, with highs in the 60s and 70s for coastal
locations west of the Cascades, and 80s east into the interior.

Putnam/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php